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[pineapple888]

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Well.... no.

With a VPIP of 90%, there is a 1/10 that Villain folds.

It's a little more complicated to figure out how often one of his opponents has AA-JJ, but 10% is somewhere in the neighborhood, and will make the calculations easier, and won't much effect the unlikeliness of the result.

Four possible outcomes on each hand:
Villain folds, an opponent has AA-JJ: (.1 * .1) = .01
Villain folds, an opponent doesn't have AA-JJ: (.1 * .9) = .09
Villain doesn't fold, an opponent has AA-JJ: (.9 * .1) = .09
Villain doesn't fold, an opponent doesn't have AA-JJ: (.9 * .9) = .81

Note the sum of the probabilities is 1.

Now for 25 independent events, we just multiply, so you end up with:

(.01^4) * (.81^21) = 1E-10 = 1 in 10 billion. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

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We know villain folds about 4 times in 25 hands. What are the odds that he does that exactly the four times somebodey had AA-JJ?

(4/25)*(3/24)*(2/23)*(1/22) = .16*.125*.086*.045=.0000774 =
1:112919 [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img].

That is ofc not complete because we don't know the odds that villain would fold 4 times in 25 hands but I would say that those odds a are pretty good.

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Dude, I'm sorry, but this is out of left field.

I stand by my post, and will really have to stop there with any further odds discussions.

[knappis]

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Dude, I'm sorry, but this is out of left field.

I stand by my post, and will really have to stop there with any further odds discussions.


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Just let me know whats wrong with my calculation and I will correct it.

[pineapple888]

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Dude, I'm sorry, but this is out of left field.

I stand by my post, and will really have to stop there with any further odds discussions.


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Just let me know whats wrong with my calculation and I will correct it.

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Dude, it's not your calculation, it's your methodology.

But in other news.

I AM WRONG ABOVE.

JOSEM IS RIGHT.

The methodology should be to go hand-by-hand, look at the cards, define what "perfect play" means for that hand for Villain, and look at the chance that he does that with just blind luck, then multiply all those together.

My apologies. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[MARK R]

We all know that these players could see the hole cards somehow while playing. Now that you have this information what is your intentions. AP will never admit that someone could see the hole cards and they will not make any more response then they have already. I think you have a few paths you can take but not sure which is the best option or are we trying them all.

1. Try and tell as many people as possible so that they dont play on AP. This includes trying to get it in the papers and any magazines that will print the story.

(The fish are still going to play on AP and that is going to attract the sharks). This may also have an effect on all of online poker not just for AP. Maybe this is what you want.

2. Try and get the gaming commision that regulates AP to look into this issue.

(This looks like a non starter from what I have read).

3. Try and file a court case agint AP for the money the players have lost.
(This looks like a non starter).

I cant think of anything else we can do. I would love to see justice done here but I dont think anything is going to happen.

What are other peoples options.

Mark.

[knappis]

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Dude, it's not your calculation, it's your methodology.

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NP m8. But I like my methodology since it focuses on the statitsical properties behind the mechanisms generating the bet/fold pattern.

[flight2q]

Either Potripper cheats or not, it's 50%. I'm not saying this is good math, but it's as good as what Josem and pineapple were arguing over.

knappis, you are much closer to the truth. First, you had some problem entering the numbers into calculator or something. The expression calculates to 1/12,650 [lol, I had problems too]. The odds are much less severe than this, of course. One factor is you need to figure out a fair way to deal with the fact that we don't know if there were other hands where Potripper did vpip while a JJ+ hand was out there. Another factor is that the JJ+ range was chosen on the basis of examining the data. Then there is the data selection bias problem.

Your approach is not perfect, but at least it is trying to compare the probability of events with and without knowledge of hole cards.

And people, please stop saying I'm 99.999% sure. You can't say that without an a priori distribution.

[Tartufo]

I'm mainly lurking at this site, but I just wanted to let the people who invest time in sorting this out and post their findings and summaries know it is very much appreciated.

Just one suggestion: can the HH's be formatted? This would not only shorten the threads but also make the evidence more accessible and perspicuous...

[nath]

Can we edit the images in this thread so they don't break it

[Josem]

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One factor is you need to figure out a fair way to deal with the fact that we don't know if there were other hands where Potripper did vpip while a JJ+ hand was out there.

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I wanted to apply this methodology to something relatively short and simple first.

I next intend on applying it to some HU hand histories, where we can see 100% of the hands held by the cheaters' opponent.

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Another factor is that the JJ+ range was chosen on the basis of examining the data. Then there is the data selection bias problem.

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Correct. The difficulty is that we don't know what the opponent's strategy is. The only way to determine their strategy is to look at what they do, and use that to create some mathematically "testable" rules.

Eg, if villain has AK vs QQ, does he fold? probably not...also, if villain has AA vs opponent's KK, obviously he wouldn't fold, but this is not inconsistent with the meaning behind the general rule.

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And people, please stop saying I'm 99.999% sure. You can't say that without an a priori distribution.

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What is a priori distribution?

[Josem]

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1. Try and tell as many people as possible so that they dont play on AP. This includes trying to get it in the papers and any magazines that will print the story.

2. Try and get the gaming commision that regulates AP to look into this issue.

3. Try and file a court case agint AP for the money the players have lost.

What are other peoples options.



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4. Make a website, and target it to clearly and logically lay out the proof against absolute poker.

Try and target it so that it is visible to people interested in Absolute Poker, but is clear that other sites are not under suspicion.