TPTK NFD vs huge overshove

[aditya]

Haha I thought it was 2/4 since it was in Medium Stakes and was like wtf is with these responses. Being 175bb's deep, I prolly fold .

[jk3a]

Board: 7s 5s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.951% 38.21% 00.74% 23834 460.00 { As7h }
Hand 1: 61.049% 60.31% 00.74% 37616 460.00 { 77, 55-44, Ks6s, Qs8s, Qs5s, Js7s, Ts8s, Ts4s, 86s, 75s-74s, 63s, 54s, 86o, 75o-74o, 63o, 54o }


throw in his random donk hands and it's still really close, so call if you want. it's likely not huge EV either way

[d2themfi]

i would fold cause i think it is close to neutral EV, and I know that chances are I can get his money in a much better spot.

Especially if we were to call and he wins and then bounces, that would suck

[heresjohnny]

i fold.

[ezdonkey]

I'd snap it.

I personally think his line suggest that his range has a wide amount of following hands:
Five or seven with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Also pair of sixes and eighths with a spade.

Made straight and very small flush are possible, but these are Villain-dependant.

Otherwise I don't see the beauty of moving Hero >80% out of the hand.

EDIT: Oh we are almost 200BB's deep. Stop posting small stakes hands on midstakes forum plz.
Given that we're almost 200BB's deep I'd give him more credit on made flushes and straights. Probably even some sets too.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 7s 5s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.951% 38.21% 00.74% 23834 460.00 { As7h }
Hand 1: 61.049% 60.31% 00.74% 37616 460.00 { 77, 55-44, Ks6s, Qs8s, Qs5s, Js7s, Ts8s, Ts4s, 86s, 75s-74s, 63s, 54s, 86o, 75o-74o, 63o, 54o }


throw in his random donk hands and it's still really close, so call if you want. it's likely not huge EV either way

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your pokerstove range is pretty bad in this case. Like... real bad. Think about it this way: Villain plays roughly 2/3rds of his hands preflop. So he gets to the flop with a TON of combinations. Then, he plays incredibly aggressive, which means he's not FOLDING a lot of those combinations (some of which have whiffed pretty awfully, or have hit marginally which are in bad shape, ie Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T:diamond)

Also, if we only have 39% equity, since we need roughly 46%, this would be a pretty TERRIBLE call. a 7% edge in a 340ish BB pot is nearly 24 bbs, which is a [censored] terrid call.

[jk3a]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Board: 7s 5s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.951% 38.21% 00.74% 23834 460.00 { As7h }
Hand 1: 61.049% 60.31% 00.74% 37616 460.00 { 77, 55-44, Ks6s, Qs8s, Qs5s, Js7s, Ts8s, Ts4s, 86s, 75s-74s, 63s, 54s, 86o, 75o-74o, 63o, 54o }


throw in his random donk hands and it's still really close, so call if you want. it's likely not huge EV either way

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your pokerstove range is pretty bad in this case. Like... real bad. Think about it this way: Villain plays roughly 2/3rds of his hands preflop. So he gets to the flop with a TON of combinations. Then, he plays incredibly aggressive, which means he's not FOLDING a lot of those combinations (some of which have whiffed pretty awfully, or have hit marginally which are in bad shape, ie Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T:diamond)

Also, if we only have 39% equity, since we need roughly 46%, this would be a pretty TERRIBLE call. a 7% edge in a 340ish BB pot is nearly 24 bbs, which is a [censored] terrid call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you took me the wrong way. My pokerstove range was just the "good" hands he could do that with. Clearly a fold against that range. What I was saying is that if you add all the garbage he could do this with like QTo or whatever you CAN call but that it's very likely small EV anyway.

btw, are you going to be on ESPN soon, have you been already, just curious about your avatar?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you took me the wrong way. My pokerstove range was just the "good" hands he could do that with. Clearly a fold against that range. What I was saying is that if you add all the garbage he could do this with like QTo or whatever you CAN call but that it's very likely small EV anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
ok, i agree, i most likely misunderstood. good point
[ QUOTE ]


btw, are you going to be on ESPN soon, have you been already, just curious about your avatar?

[/ QUOTE ]
it was aired, day 2b, i think episode 16.

[Irish Mafia]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 7s 5s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.951% 38.21% 00.74% 23834 460.00 { As7h }
Hand 1: 61.049% 60.31% 00.74% 37616 460.00 { 77, 55-44, Ks6s, Qs8s, Qs5s, Js7s, Ts8s, Ts4s, 86s, 75s-74s, 63s, 54s, 86o, 75o-74o, 63o, 54o }


throw in his random donk hands and it's still really close, so call if you want. it's likely not huge EV either way

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a few hands listed that are impossible. Qs5s, Ts4s, Js7s, etc.

[praios]

fold