Daliman's Wong Teasers, Season Deux; Week 3 - Page 3

MrG · #21 09-23-2007, 11:29 AM

I got Minn +2.5(+6) and Balt -8.0(+6) 110 to win 100.

thoughtgang · #22 09-23-2007, 11:32 AM

09/23/2007 @ 10:00 AM [401] MINNESOTA +7½-110 (B+6) - NFL
09/23/2007 @ 10:00 AM [410] PITTSBURGH -2½-110 (B+6) - NFL
09/23/2007 @ 10:00 AM [412] BALTIMORE -1½-110 (B+6) - NFL

got these at the beginning of the week-gl

hogua · #23 09-23-2007, 11:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not wongs, therefore -EV, but GL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because one specific teaser ticket isn't a basic strategy teaser (i.e. Wong teaser) doesn't mean it is -EV.

Daliman, are you saying this specific wager is -EV strickly because it isn't teasing though 3 and 7? Or, have you handicapped the game and lines and concluded, based on your work, that it is -EV?

Austiger · #24 09-23-2007, 12:05 PM

I think he's saying that if you have a specific lean on those games you should just bet them straight up. Teasers in general are -EV.

McFadden · #25 09-23-2007, 12:19 PM

Okaleedokalee, I'm going with some -EV Non-Wong teasers. RR'ing these 5 games:

Colts -7 -> -1
Ravens -7.5 -> -1.5
Steelers -10 -> -4
Patriots -17 -> -11
Chargers -6 -> 0

Flame away. Good thing is by 4 I'll either be down 10 units or up 10 (or somewhere in between)

TomCowley · #26 09-23-2007, 12:30 PM

How do you possibly think the pats game ends up on 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 20+% of the time?

McFadden · #27 09-23-2007, 12:35 PM

I don't know but I think 13 and especially 14 are very possible margins of victory.

TomCowley · #28 09-23-2007, 12:53 PM

Sure, but if you straight bet 16.5, you have to cover 52% of the time. Teasing to 11 (really only a 5.5 tease too), you have to cover 71-72% of the time, which means you have to hit the 12-16 20% of the time. If you think that's going to happen, find somebody to prop-bet the 13 and 14 exactly at 10:1.

TomG · #29 09-23-2007, 12:56 PM

Buffalo/New England starts in 5 mins... There's no time to be bothered with this numbers mumbo jumbo. Patriots -11 gogogogogog!

Daliman · #30 09-23-2007, 02:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not wongs, therefore -EV, but GL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because one specific teaser ticket isn't a basic strategy teaser (i.e. Wong teaser) doesn't mean it is -EV.

Daliman, are you saying this specific wager is -EV strickly because it isn't teasing though 3 and 7? Or, have you handicapped the game and lines and concluded, based on your work, that it is -EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. And yes.