600NL stupid hand versus regular

[Albert Moulton]

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I'm not sure how useful the EV calc would be. And that's even if we could all agree on assumptions about what villain holds (saying its a pp 100% of the time is LOL) and how often he will call with a PP (I think its near 0%).

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Fair enough.

I figured out Mike's concern I think, too. Overpair vs set has about a .1 equity. So, my EV calc changes like this.

EV($30 raise) = 1.00*[($63*0.88)+[(0.11*-$594*.9)+(0.11*$594*.1)]+(0.01*$594)] = +9.11

EV($60 raise) = ( 0.1*[($123*0.88)+[(0.11*-$594*.9)+(0.11*$594*.1)]+(0.01*$594)] ) + ( 0.9*(3+6+6) ) = +$19.69.

The biggest problem here is that even when the CO folds 100% of the time, the EV for the smaller raise is less than what is already in the preflop pot, making it higher EV to have CO fold every time as opposed to offering up the reverse implied odds of the lower raise.

But I really do appreciate your thoughtful response. Thanks.