A8s on button 7 handed on bubble

[Maddie84]

[ QUOTE ]

Given its the bubble, there calling ranges are going to be even tighter, so its even more +EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

we obviously don't know the player and what he is in the tourney for but would the average player fold 8s thru JJ and AQ/AJ?

[udbrky]

[ QUOTE ]
Tackleberry.

Against what alot of people in this forum will say, I thinks its right to consider playing to cash in some circumstances.

If I'm right on the bubble, I will turn down a marginal +EV move if it has high variance, but it has to be pretty marginal.

This hand is not marginal, in fact if you turned your cards face up and then pushed, this would still be +EV.

Given its the bubble, there calling ranges are going to be even tighter, so its even more +EV.

You ran into a monster, bad luck, it sucks to bubble, but its great when you FT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing a strong hand into the blinds isn't a marginally +EV situation. Calling an all-in getting 1.5:1 when you think you're only about 45% against his range is.

You've got a ton of fold equity here. You can't help the BB's getting lucky and having a monster. I estimate 90% of the time, you pick up the blinds and antes, which are what - 1/4 of your stack? So you just have to steal the blinds successfully, or win at showdown, 20% of the time. You'll easily steal blinds that often.

This isn't a marginally +EV situation. It just sucks the BB had one of the 5 hands he'd call here.

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Given its the bubble, there calling ranges are going to be even tighter, so its even more +EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

we obviously don't know the player and what he is in the tourney for but would the average player fold 8s thru JJ and AQ/AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I'm not getting you, what's your point here?

[Maddie84]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Given its the bubble, there calling ranges are going to be even tighter, so its even more +EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

we obviously don't know the player and what he is in the tourney for but would the average player fold 8s thru JJ and AQ/AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I'm not getting you, what's your point here?

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously we know he calls AA KK QQ AK...

if those other hands are in his calling range they have us at about a 30% shot so if he is calling 8s/9s/Ts etc. on the bubble does that affect our decision in the long run.

[karlwig]

[ QUOTE ]
for tackleberry, 10th to 20th was identical and my main target is a top 5 finish.

[/ QUOTE ]


Another reason to shove IMO.