I am 2 much of a Nut Peddler here?

[JanelleBB7]

So MP1 is rather fishy... I am supicious he doesn/t have the goods... but is supician alone merit a call here for all my chips?

Full Tilt Poker - Pot Limit Omaha Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $81.55
JanelleBB7 (BB): $32.75
UTG: $53.75
UTG+1: $5.00
MP1: $29.45
MP2: $25.35
CO: $8.75
BTN: $23.15

Preflop: JanelleBB7 is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $1.10</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls $1.10, 2 folds, JanelleBB7 calls $0.85, UTG+1 calls $0.85

Flop: ($4.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
JanelleBB7 checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets all-in for $3.90</font>, MP1 calls $3.90, CO calls $3.90, <font color="red">JanelleBB7 raises to $7.80</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises all-in to $28.35</font>, CO calls all-in for $3.75, JanelleBB7 folds

Fold correct move against this many players considering I only have second nuts???

[JamaY]

I'd fold this, since at these limits most people slowplay the nut flush to get worse flushes to call.

[Elrazor]

at a full table i lead the flop and fold to a RR, i also probably fold pre at a full table - you hand looks pretty but thats about it and you are so OOP, but then maybe im too much of a nut peddler [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[shootaa]

fold preflop, this hand is pretty bad, replace the J with a suited A, then w/e. as played, if you're playing a hand like this and you flop this good, do not fold... otherwise, just don't call pf in the first place.

[JanelleBB7]

ok thanks.. I know I shouldn't have come in with this hand in the first place, but I did and wanted to know how I should have handled it.

Turns out MP1 pushed all in with trip 9s.... yes trip 9s!

[Rob121]

your flop raise is really bad and just asking to be reraised. check call or bet fold vs an unknown.

[FireStorm]

Check/call flop is good. Try and resist the temptation to play hands like this.

[Ribbo]

You called a preflop raise with QJ32. You have no problems in being called a nut peddler, so don't worry.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold correct move against this many players considering I only have second nuts???

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Janelle - Tough decision.

Several factors to consider.

First, obviously you wonder if MP1 has the nut flush or not.

Second, if you do fold here, you're more likely to become a target for future bluffing and semi-bluffing (and from everyone who is watching, not just MP1) than if you call.

Third, the cost to you is $20.55 to possibly win $49.10. You're getting about 2.4 to 1.

Fourth, how about a little math? Let's suppose no one of your seven opponents would fold a nut flush draw before the flop. In that case, the probability of the ace of spades being amongst the 28 cards dealt to these seven opponents with at least one more spade being also in that hand is
(28/45)*0.413=0.257 = probability.

There were two factors in the probability calculation (28/45 and 0.413). The first factor is easy: 28 cards were dealt to opponents out of a total of 45 missing cards. The ace of spades is in there somewhere, and is obviously 28/45 to be in amongst the 28 cards dealt to opponents.

The second factor is tougher. Here's the chart for the 0.413:<ul type="square">AsXsYsZs 7*6*5/6
AsXsYsZn 7*6*37/2
AsXsYbZn 7*37*36/2
AsXnYnZn 37*36*35/6
total should be 13244, from C(44,3)
35+777+4662+7770=13244
O.K., it checks.
Then 35+777+4662=5474
Finally 5474/13244=0.413[/list]At any rate, roughly one time out of four when your hand is what it is and when the flop is what it is, one of seven other hands figures to be dealt the ace of spades along with at least one other spade.

So it's about 3 to 1 that none of your opponents was dealt the suited ace of spades. (If anyone was dealt the suited ace of spades, you assume that is the person who is playing a hand as though he had the suited ace of spades).

Tough decision. I think I'd call. MP1 only has to be bluffing or semi-bluffing about one time out of seven to make it a profitable call. Here, if MP1 has flopped a set of nines, he's making a semi-bluff rather than an out and out bluff. (MP1 figures to improve and win about 30%, as simulated). Mostly in Omaha or Omaha-8, I think you deal with semi-bluffs rather than bluffs.

Give MP1 his due. If he has a set of nines, he made a good semi-bluff here.

But keep in mind that I mostly play limit Omaha-8. (In a limit game, it would be an easy call).

Buzz

[JanelleBB7]

Frist off your all right about my preflop descision to be in this hand. SHOULDN'T have done it!

Buzz, I agree I should have called this. Once I made the decision to play this hand preflop I really commited myself to making this sort of decision. Next time if I am stupid enough to go in preflop in this situation I will stick with the hand.