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#11
09-21-2007, 01:26 PM
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Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
I'd always fold here in a cash game b/c this line is always a very strong hand by the river.
[ QUOTE ] If he's got a 9 or QT, wouldn't he CR or just shove? [/ QUOTE ] No. He has no reason to believe that Hero will bet again. Most villain's think like this: "I have to slowplay." Then by the river, they realize that they are OOP and can't slowplay anymore. So they make a big bet. [ QUOTE ] First, I would probably fold KJo pre unless I had a lot of reads on the table (my lowest open-raising hands here from CO would be KJs or KQo--please tell me if that's terribly nitty). [/ QUOTE ] Nah. This is a raise here. I am open-raising a ton of [censored] in this CO with stacks this deep. As for the river...we have to win 1/3 times to break even. I'd say about 10% of the time he is FOS, and the rest he has us in trouble. So I'd really try hard to get myself to fold. 
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#12
09-21-2007, 03:01 PM
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Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
Not sure what it means either...but i don't think that it means that we're beat enough times to fold. I don't think that 9c improved his hand. but who knows?
Unless you have 2-barrelled consistently, your line looks pretty strong, so why would BB break his slowplay line here and bet the pot with a Str8? A9dd is possible, b/c donks don't play their pair+FD hands aggressively.
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#13
09-21-2007, 03:45 PM
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Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
[ QUOTE ]
BB break his slowplay line here and bet the pot with a Str8 [/ QUOTE ] Because Hero may check behind on that river, and villain wants to make more money on the hand. --TFGoose
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#14
09-21-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] BB break his slowplay line here and bet the pot with a Str8 [/ QUOTE ] Because Hero may check behind on that river, and villain wants to make more money on the hand. --TFGoose [/ QUOTE ] Thx for the clarification [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]...i would expect a value bet to be 1/2-2/3 pot with a strong hand that wants a call, unless villain is levelling (doubtful given OP's read) - thinking PSB will look more like a bluff.
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#15
09-21-2007, 04:02 PM
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Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
[ QUOTE ]
As for the river...we have to win 1/3 times to break even. [/ QUOTE ] I think we're good around this much. It's nuts or nothing obviously (with nuts being whatever excites him). FWIW, he bet pretty quick, but I also can't decide what that means either.
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#16
09-21-2007, 04:49 PM
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Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] As for the river...we have to win 1/3 times to break even. [/ QUOTE ] I think we're good around this much. It's nuts or nothing obviously (with nuts being whatever excites him). FWIW, he bet pretty quick, but I also can't decide what that means either. [/ QUOTE ] So since we are never raising for value against him and you think we are better than 33% to win, we have an EZ call...correct?
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#17
09-22-2007, 06:20 AM
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Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
Every time I consider this hand I think differently. He's bluffing sometimes and he's making an ill-conceived value with worse bet a non zero %. It's not an easy call because we're good around 33% but to judge exactly is impossible. I would say that making a half pot bet on the turn on this site will be read as weakness. OTOH, the board's pretty scary to bet into.
So at the time, I wasn't sure. After watching the guy some more, I'm fairly sure that he had what he considered to be the nuts.
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