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#11
09-20-2007, 02:32 PM
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Re: A5s: River raise?
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, I think you have that 2/3's lead. Villian is most likely to have either zippo or a hand like JTo. I doubt he bets out AQs and didn't raise PF. [/ QUOTE ] 1. the likelihood of UTG having zippo is basically that, zippo. He is not going to lead 3rd to act on a 7way flop w/ air. 2. you are narrowing him down to a hand like naked T already? Based on what? Live players tend to be more passive, so if he does have just a naked T, it will tend to be TJ+ (ie TJ-A). So at the river, QT and AT kills us, and we are ahead of JT and KT. 3. He can easily also have 33, 66, or even TT (many live players will not ever raise TT even if they are first to open on the button). 4. He can also have some raggedy 2pair like 3Ts, T6s, 63s as people love to play suited junk. 5. Even if he has a weak T that we beat, how often is he calling a river raise? Add all of these things together and to me the river is a clear call over a raise. 
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#13
09-20-2007, 07:26 PM
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Re: A5s: River raise?
So obv. he had something like JT on riv here and you were upset that you 'didn't get that extra bet in'. I hate raising here because a lot of the time vs. terrible players you are beat here and they come over the top, now what?
I'd rather j call see he hand, if you're beat, you're beat and you get to collect more betting pattern info. If you win, you win 8 BBs, I def. don't think this is a value raise here, if your kicker is better, I'd say marginal value raise, but this spot isn't really close.
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#15
09-21-2007, 10:01 AM
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Re: A5s: River raise?
[ QUOTE ]
Villain in hand is UTG. He is pretty bad. Plays marg hands a bit too far from what I have seen so far this early on. [/ QUOTE ] semi bluff raising this turn is bad against this opponent.
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#16
09-21-2007, 02:16 PM
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Re: A5s: River raise?
good points, however most donks will call a raise with only a pair, fold to a reraise. smooth call may be best, not sure
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