NL 25 6-max: flush draw + gutshot, how agressive should I be?

[monkeymaps]

weither to limp/raise/fold Axs and small PPs is very table dependent and I think its kind of a leak to rigidly say you should always raise/fold/limp these hands without taking game flow into account. If you were getting 3bet alot you prob wouldnt want to raise Axs UTG for example.

[doppelganger]

The reason you want to push is that you have almost 50% equity right now, so it's not a tragedy if you get called by a better hand. You want to fold out hands that are beating you right now like A5 and weak Kx hands that are afraid of kicker trouble.

[Antinome]

Nobody wants to comment on his minbet-minraise line?

That's very often a monster. Worse, he only raises 8% (88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+), he isn't super aggressive, AND he's 'playing tighter' than he was earlier. Doesn't that often add up to a huge hand (99+,AQs+,AKo,KQs)?

Alright, it might be AQ, 99-QQ (36 Combinations) frustration raising. But a lot of the time it's a hand he'll have a lot of trouble folding... AA,AK,KK,KQ (26 Combinations)

EVpush=(36/62)(2.50+1.55+3.10)+(26/62)((.47)(50.6)-.53(50.6))
=4.15-1.27 = +2.87

But if you call once to hit the turn with 96%+ equity and he has trouble folding those same hands...

EVturn=(.76)(-1.55)+(.26)((4.15)+(26/62)((.96)(50.6)-(.04)(50.6)))
= -1.18+6.13 = +4.95

I'll admit the read on him has to be pretty good that he can't get away from those hands before calling is better, but considering the EV boost, it is worth considering.

If you don't know, pushing is +EV.

[NL Newbie]

Well you need to consider a few factors.

Minraise normally means a great hand, so ill assume that.

Since thats the case and he prob wont fold anyway, i think i prefer a call here.

Its a trade off and i dont think shoving here is bad, i just feel calling maybe better. However theres problesm with each.


The pots small, so winning its not a fantastic result anyway - So shoving in small pots is going to make TPTK and weaker hands fold, so we get called by sets+other storng hands and our equity isnt great.

On the other hand, drawing to such a obvious(FD) draw means our odds of being paid are reduced.

However, id rather get 80% of equity from bets on later streets that say 30-40% of a shove here and thats because theres hardly any dead money.

So imo, draw.
p.s. GSD makes this draw awesome, hes going broke with 2pair/TPTK/sets if that hits and its so hidden!