2/4NL My Hand Feels Puny : (

[mikeysong]

Villain is 16/8/5

I haven't been paying attention to him really which means he hasn't been a maniac.

When he fires that 3rd bullet, I can pretty much only beat a bluff correct? Or I guess a really retarded AT

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $495.15
CO: $220.55
Button: $827.25
SB: $330
Hero: $467.10

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with js jh
UTG raises to $14, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: th 9h 9s ($30, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $24, Hero calls.

Turn: 3s ($78, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $55, Hero calls.

River: 6s ($188, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $85, Hero folds

[AAismyfriend]

I dont see why his line with AT would be retarded.....but this guy never has AT and yes you only beat a bluff here. It's annoying but folding is probably right.

[mikeysong]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see why his line with AT would be retarded.....but this guy never has AT and yes you only beat a bluff here. It's annoying but folding is probably right.

[/ QUOTE ]

because if he has AT, i'm gonna go ballistic

and then I won't be able to sleep at night

and then I'll be grumpy

and then I'll hate people >:|

[Pog0]

I see nothing retarded about playing AT this way. If I have AT in his situation, I'll assume I'm ahead at least 90% of the time on the river here and confidently value bet.

So I'd go ahead and assume ATs is in his range (probably doesn't open ATo with his stats).

That said, it's probably still a fold.

QQ-AA = 18 combos.
ATs = 3 combos.

so if he's valuebetting, we win 3/21 times, in other words we need to be getting 18:3 or 6:1 if he never bluffs.

Considering his tight opening ranges and significantly discounting any attempts to 3-barrel AQ/AK (since a wide part of your range would be draws that missed so he might as well check behind).

So we're getting like 3.2:1 here, not even enough if you give him a small chance of opening ATo.

I'd say calling is your worst option, although raising could be pretty sexy. Given his bet-sizing, I don't expect him to have a monster, and maybe you can convince him that you backdoored the flush or have 87 or T9.

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
because if he has AT, i'm gonna go ballistic

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has AT, then he was still much more likely to have had QQ/KK/AA. If he has ATo, then you have a bad read on him, again something that you can't really get upset about.

[ogdundar]

I think this is fine. Normally I 3-bet JJ here but vs an 8%pfr I agree with calling sometimes.

[kura0]

i dont think 8 pfr raises ATs or unsuited UTG ever

[Money2Burn]

I fold the turn, the villian is a total nit he has you crushed here most of the time. ATs might be at the very bottom of his range, and I highly doubt that.