NL 50 Aces up on the river. raise or call?

Keyser112 · #1 09-19-2007, 03:45 PM

villain is 18/5.4/2 over about 400 hands

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 ($39.90)
MP1 ($44.75)
MP2 ($50)
MP3 ($21.20)
Hero ($53.45)
Button ($52.15)
SB ($50.60)
BB ($12.05)
UTG ($45.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($4) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero calls $4.

River: ($12) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $8, Hero?

AlexB182 · #2 09-19-2007, 03:50 PM

Raise. I guess the best he could have is KQ, I can't see him playing a set like that.

pfapfap · #3 09-19-2007, 03:51 PM

I raise here. You may have been behind before, but I think you're ahead now.

ship_it_trebek · #4 09-19-2007, 03:54 PM

Bet that flop in position. If you raise you have to call a shove but I'm not sure you beat anything that will shove over you.

RapidEvolution · #5 09-19-2007, 03:55 PM

I'm not sure how different they are, but I've seen sets played (and, admittedly, I've played them) just like this in $25NL. Checking to induce a bet on a flop like that from A-K type hands and then leading out.

That having been said, I agree with the raise, but am not sure what I'd do if he shoved.

AlexB182 · #6 09-19-2007, 03:59 PM

Oh well, you both have full stacks. Lets me put it like that: I wouldn't say its donkish to just call here, especially if you are afraid he could've played a set that strangely. But I think you will be a little pissed when you see that you might have lost a lot of value here if he really shows something like KQ or even AJ or some crap...

CazicT · #7 09-19-2007, 04:12 PM

JT isn't necassarily out of his range either. I still think you should raise, just thought i'd throw that in there.

RyanCMU · #8 09-19-2007, 05:18 PM

Cbet this flop. If you would have cbet the flop we coudl define SB's hand range much more effectivly.

It's likely SB could have wiffed a flop c/r w/ a set and is now just valuetowning away. By not cbetting the flop we also can't rule JT out, because SB could rarely be semi-bluffing this turn here... Hell he can have AK, an 18/5 doesnt always 3town that PF.

KQ is the only worse hand that calls a river raise, I just call the river.

ranka · #9 09-19-2007, 05:39 PM

I would raise the river. Also cbet the flop.

wikemang · #10 09-19-2007, 05:41 PM

cbet flop, raise river