Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[Wolfskin]

I find this thread on casinomeister very interesting. Pokeraddict posted a lot of very good thoughts even before the first thread on 2+2 got locked. On page 3 a lurker posts how all this is complete nonsense and in the next post he gets outed by Pokeraddict as someone who works for Absolute just by the type of his posts.


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Thanks for the link. I've never trusted the high limits there, never could put a finger on why. I wonder if this is why Calvinhobbes got raped so bad after the BBJ win. FWIW I have Steamroller as a massive loser in my PT although it is at much lower limits.



The obvious HU chip dumping is the biggest concern. It would lead one to believe there was a team or fraudulant money on the site. I'm not convinced either, especially since one of the players mentioned is a massive loser in my PT database. I always felt there were some odd things in their higher stakes games though but not to the extreme being discussed.



I have seen damning evidence that convinces me AP has been using house players or have rogue software developers that have left a back door to exploit. I strongly advise all to run from AP as fast as you can. This evidence has been slowly coming public all day.



The orignal thread has been locked into the mod forum while 2+2 decided what to do. It has mind boggling evidence that will come out shortly such as the players involved never called on the river, they either folded or raised. They also had impossible W$@SD stats.



It's ironic that AP was pushing their 9% interest for Elite VIP's trying to attract the type of player that would have been taken in this scam. Many were very skeptical about that offer, now many wonder including myself if that was a way to get people into these cheating games.

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You can't offer someone interests that high and at the same time security for the money. Most times the money disappears in the stock market or some other shady business.

[adanthar]

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I find this thread on casinomeister very interesting. Pokeraddict posted a lot of very good thoughts even before the first thread on 2+2 got locked. On page 3 a lurker posts how all this is complete nonsense and in the next post he gets outed by Pokeraddict as someone who works for Absolute just by the type of his posts.

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oh, this is good. updating OP to reflect it.

[Gildwulf]

This is a pretty good sum-up from pokeraddict:

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It seems from a 2+2 thread most of the non believers do not use Poker Tracker and all of the Poker Tracker users are 100% believers. This leads me to believe the stats might need more explaining to help non PT users fully understand.

One cheat account has stats of 94/72 with overall aggression factors over 20 with river AF's that cannot be calculated because he never calls, he only folds or raises. He is winning 32BB/100 in limit and 311ptbb/100 in NL. So what does all this mean?

The first stat I show as 94 means that a player puts money in the pot preflop 94% of the time. It is safe to say that 5 of the other 6% are unraised big blinds so this means the player is flopping 99% of the time. Out of 100 hands he only flops once, maybe twice before the flop. In one 100 hand sample this player folded 3 times. Once a player held AA, another time a player held QQ and a 3rd time it had been 3 bet when it got to him. In the third hand no hands were shown so it cannot be determined what he or the other 2 players had.

The 72 refers to his preflop raise %. So not only is he flopping virtually every hand (unless another player has a monster) he is raising preflop 72% of the time. Since he seems to play an average of 4.5 players per hand he is raising roughly every time each orbit except once.

The 32bb/100 in limit refers to a win rate of 32 big bets per 100 hands. In the limits where these accusations have been made this would mean that every 100 hands this particular player is winning an astonishing $9600. The 311ptbb/100 is slightly different then limit. 1 ptbb is double the big blind in NL. This player is playing 10/20 NL. His win rate per 100 hands in NL is $12,440. A good player might win 5bb/100 and 10ptbb/100. Even 100 hands would be a big enough sample to know something was up. To put it in a more normal stake formula this would be like winning over $1200 in an hour of 1/2 NL and being able to do it consistently. With the posted PT's this would mean for you to mimic the same results in a 10 hour day you would have to win over $12,000 in 1/2 NL. That's right, over a $12,000 win in a day long $2 big blind NL game. If you use PT find 1 player with 50+ hands that has these stats or better. It's simple you can't, especially the infinite river AF. You probably can't find a player with win rates half that with over 50 hands and with 1000 hands you will certainly not.

Also this players W$atSD (won money at showdown) is over 90% and keep in mind none of these losses are with him calling a second best hand. All the losses are from players going all in before the river or from a handful of cheat open checks and op checks. Since he can see others cards why would he call a loser? He either has you beat or he doesn't.

How is this player flopping every hand, raising almost every hand preflop, winning every showdown he puts money in the pot for and taking the iggest winrate in history? There's only 1 answer. Any poker player knows a 94/72 player is a total maniac fish that is going to go bust very quickly.

Combine this with the massive chip dump last night of roughly $30,000 calling hands like an unimproved 34 on the river for $1700 while getting accused left and right for previous cheating and the fact AP is ignoring everybody demanding an immediate statement is really damning. Why hasn't AP locked these accounts yet? Why has AP ignored players since even before this went public? One of these players chip dumped an entire bankroll midweek last week. That's why this finally broke. Why would AP allow that?

If all of this does not convince you what will?

FWIW I have not been taken for anything. I simply posted about this because this is a very serious situation that needs to be addressed by AP and needs to be recognized by the entire industry. Either they have been hacked or they have been cheating. If they were hacked and have still done nothing, not even lock accounts then they have really screwed up. If they are in on it then they have ruined their business. There are many that believe Mark Seif is involved. I think that is far fetched but the more AP ignores this the more speculation that will come out. Mark Seif has been accused of this very thing in the past at AP even though that evidence did not have any facts unlike the mountain of evidence here.

Believe the facts or dismiss them as made up if you choose. The only way I can see how one could dismiss these allegations is if they believe all of facts are made up, not because multiple players can play like that and win even a little, much less an absolute fortune in one of the highest limit games online against some of the biggest names in online poker. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion though.

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[suzzer99]

Sites like PS, FTP and UB have banned players and confiscated funds for 10 times less circumstantial evidence than what has been collected on these dudes.

[Bobo Fett]

As usual, PA is on the money.

[Gildwulf]

Also, I've finally had some time tonight to read through all the threads and the threads on other forums. Add me to the 100% convinced camp.

[LacquDown]

Adanathar and others,

I'm not a high-stakes player, nor do I play at Absolute, but I'd like to express my gratuity for all of the hard work you've put into unraveling this mystery. It's becoming apparent that getting to the bottom of this, punishing deserving parties and diffusing this story while Absolute stonewalls will be difficult, but good progress has been made thus far. Further, you are helping demonstrate the power that players can possibly seize in the industry to monitor and protect their interests. Even with evidence as damning as has been uncovered thus far, I think it will take a lot more zeal and hard work to "win" here, but with so many intelligent people working on this "case", I think it can be done.

(Edit: Fixed a sentence fragment)

[Schneids]

Here is my last effort I might make regarding this issue, since I'm now convinced AP is too stupid and/or oblivious and/or guilty for them to ever get this situation right... I sent this to Phil Hellmuth thru his website, if anyone else knows any other/better ways to contact him, please let me know:

subject - UB and AP's relationship -- URGENT

Hi Phil, I am wondering what type of relationship exists between UB and Absolute Poker.

First let me preface this by saying I've won over $xhdfals in online cash games, and I have over $kadjfa;d career tournament wins in my limited amount of tourney play. I have played against you before on UB (as SploogyMcGoo), and I have played you a little on AP as well. I am one of the most highly regarded online limit hold em players in the world.

In any case, more so to the point: it is ~100% certain that massive cheating is going on the past few weeks on AP in their high stakes lhe, nlhe, and MTTs, and AP is doing absolutely nothing about it. Is there anything you can do about it, or not?

I think the quickest way to summarize how/why the entire winning online playing community feels this way about AP can be summarized by this post in a forum:

"It seems from a 2+2 thread most of the non believers do not use Poker Tracker and all of the Poker Tracker users are 100% believers. This leads me to believe the stats might need more explaining to help non PT users fully understand.

One cheat account has stats of 94/72 with overall aggression factors over 20 with river AF's that cannot be calculated because he never calls, he only folds or raises. He is winning 32BB/100 in limit and 311ptbb/100 in NL. So what does all this mean?

The first stat I show as 94 means that a player puts money in the pot preflop 94% of the time. It is safe to say that 5 of the other 6% are unraised big blinds so this means the player is flopping 99% of the time. Out of 100 hands he only flops once, maybe twice before the flop. In one 100 hand sample this player folded 3 times. Once a player held AA, another time a player held QQ and a 3rd time it had been 3 bet when it got to him. In the third hand no hands were shown so it cannot be determined what he or the other 2 players had.

The 72 refers to his preflop raise %. So not only is he flopping virtually every hand (unless another player has a monster) he is raising preflop 72% of the time. Since he seems to play an average of 4.5 players per hand he is raising roughly every time each orbit except once.

The 32bb/100 in limit refers to a win rate of 32 big bets per 100 hands. In the limits where these accusations have been made this would mean that every 100 hands this particular player is winning an astonishing $9600. The 311ptbb/100 is slightly different then limit. 1 ptbb is double the big blind in NL. This player is playing 10/20 NL. His win rate per 100 hands in NL is $12,440. A good player might win 5bb/100 and 10ptbb/100. Even 100 hands would be a big enough sample to know something was up. To put it in a more normal stake formula this would be like winning over $1200 in an hour of 1/2 NL and being able to do it consistently. With the posted PT's this would mean for you to mimic the same results in a 10 hour day you would have to win over $12,000 in 1/2 NL. That's right, over a $12,000 win in a day long $2 big blind NL game. If you use PT find 1 player with 50+ hands that has these stats or better. It's simple you can't, especially the infinite river AF. You probably can't find a player with win rates half that with over 50 hands and with 1000 hands you will certainly not.

Also this players W$atSD (won money at showdown) is over 90% and keep in mind none of these losses are with him calling a second best hand. All the losses are from players going all in before the river or from a handful of cheat open checks and op checks. Since he can see others cards why would he call a loser? He either has you beat or he doesn't.

How is this player flopping every hand, raising almost every hand preflop, winning every showdown he puts money in the pot for and taking the iggest winrate in history? There's only 1 answer. Any poker player knows a 94/72 player is a total maniac fish that is going to go bust very quickly.

Combine this with the massive chip dump last night of roughly $30,000 calling hands like an unimproved 34 on the river for $1700 while getting accused left and right for previous cheating and the fact AP is ignoring everybody demanding an immediate statement is really damning. Why hasn't AP locked these accounts yet? Why has AP ignored players since even before this went public? One of these players chip dumped an entire bankroll midweek last week. That's why this finally broke. Why would AP allow that?

If all of this does not convince you what will?

FWIW I have not been taken for anything. I simply posted about this because this is a very serious situation that needs to be addressed by AP and needs to be recognized by the entire industry. Either they have been hacked or they have been cheating. If they were hacked and have still done nothing, not even lock accounts then they have really screwed up. If they are in on it then they have ruined their business. There are many that believe Mark Seif is involved. I think that is far fetched but the more AP ignores this the more speculation that will come out. Mark Seif has been accused of this very thing in the past at AP even though that evidence did not have any facts unlike the mountain of evidence here.

Believe the facts or dismiss them as made up if you choose. The only way I can see how one could dismiss these allegations is if they believe all of facts are made up, not because multiple players can play like that and win even a little, much less an absolute fortune in one of the highest limit games online against some of the biggest names in online poker. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion though."


If you even read this all, I would be happy to show you specific hands, specific database samplings, or whatever else. I'm sure you're aware, it is TOUGH to play hold em over any considerable sample size, playing 90% of hands preflop, and NEVER calling a river bet (always either folding or raising), all while KILLING the games in a way that nobody else ever has. Basically, there are people who can see everyone's hole cards, and are doing a very bad job of hiding their cheating . Oh, and one of these accounts which crushed the games and is believed to have cheated, a few days ago, was observed chip dumping ~$250,000 to another player via HU SNGs and HU high stakes hold em games. ALL OF THIS BEING IGNORED BY ABSOLUTE POKER, WHO IS SAYING NO WRONGDOING HAS OCCURRED.

I hope you can help in some way, since AP's reputation is being tarnished throughout the internet community as we speak, and that likely means UB takes a fall along with them, unless someone (such as yourself) can set the record straight.

My cell # is kdafkadfads;, if you happen to feel this is worth your time to discuss further.

Thank you,
Mike Schneider

[adanthar]

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I think it will take a lot more zeal and hard work to "win" here, but with so many intelligent people working on this "case", I think it can be done.

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at this point, we're past 'building the case' and in more of a 'waiting around on our ass while looking for Absolute to throw more than a random affiliate manager to the wolves' mode

[ur2barredout]

nice work schneids