qq against seminit

nitramee · #1 09-18-2007, 02:05 PM

villan was about 21/12/x
stats seem solid, but his postflop game is ABC weakish, i have never seen him raising marginal edges, draws or air.

Hand:
nl100

Villan(utg) raises 4 ,utg+2 calls 4 Hero in BB with q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] raises to 18. Villan calls

flop

pot~40)
9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets 30(maybe 25 is better?)
Villan instafelts.
Hero?

I hate to fold here, but we all now he has AA,KK here too often

ryang · #2 09-18-2007, 06:08 PM

ugh, i'd call and hope to see TT or JJ. do you think he would just smooth call pf with AA & KK? looks more like a set than anything.

rberg · #3 09-18-2007, 06:13 PM

dont mind...misread

Irishman07 · #4 09-18-2007, 06:23 PM

This definitely depends if you put JJ in his range or not. If his range is just AA/KK/QQ/AcKc then its a clear fold but if you add JJ then you have to call. I wouldn't be happy but I'd call because his range is usually wider than you think.

Demogorgon · #5 09-18-2007, 06:34 PM

Essentially a math issue I guess. Assuming we're playing 100bb EFF then we have to be good ~25%. Putting just two combos of JJ in his range along with KK,AA,AcKc makes it
Hand 0: 77.498% 77.50% 00.00% 69051 0.00 { KK+, JcJd, JcJh, AcKc }
Hand 1: 22.502% 22.50% 00.00% 20049 0.00 { QQ }

Pretty close. Three combos and we're in the clear. Combined with the small chance of him having something completely retarded here makes up for calling. But its a [censored] spot.

Demogorgon · #6 09-18-2007, 06:44 PM

Nevermind I messed up with pokerstove and forgot to put in our actualy hand not including Qc.

Here's another range consisting of one combo for each of the sets, one TT and two JJ combos.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.459% 77.46% 00.00% 14570 0.00 { KK+, JcJd, JcJh, TcTs, 9h9s, 6h6s, 2h2s, AcKc }
Hand 1: 22.541% 22.54% 00.00% 4240 0.00 { QdQs }

It's so close you can call, it's a cooler I guess. Blah blah insert stupid generalization: 'dont 3bet pf if youre folding on this flop' [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]