river raise

[H20]

Villain is 12/0 in 8hands (so hes not spewing preflop, probably tight)

Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5SB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3.5BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.5BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, Hero...




A pocket would probably 3bet preflop, but that could be it, or a hand like 98s, in which case he's "often" bet/folding.

An ace, would prob be with better kicker about half the time (i expect him to fold weak offsuit aces, some weak suited aces and not necessarily 3bet stronger aces) and he could have slowplayed 2pair now fullhouse in which case I pay 3bets.

Is this a clear raise?
If so what about if he was 23/5/1 in 200 hands, tight postflop and rare to 3bet a non pocketpair preflop.

[Absolution]

This is where you need to do EV calculations with a range. I suspect this is closer to a raise than a call, but I'll have to play round in stove. He might think his 8 or 99 is good now and if that's the case he's probably not good enough to fold if your raise.

[lippy]

This has to be a raise.

"Oh there are two aces on the board, he can't have one, I have a pair and like hell I'm letting this check through" is more often than him slow playing a set or something similar.

Your hand got better... he never showed strength.

[Absolution]

You're calling all 3-bets though so you have to take that into account.

[VelarStop]

[ QUOTE ]
This has to be a raise.

"Oh there are two aces on the board, he can't have one, I have a pair and like hell I'm letting this check through" is more often than him slow playing a set or something similar.

Your hand got better... he never showed strength.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think by the same logic, a lot of the time you're going to see weak Axs, that will definitely not be able to get away when you 3-bet.

Also, if it were situation #2 I would still at least call down, you're losing too much value from his small PPs and Axs hands by folding

[Gurravasa]

I would just call and take a note. Looks like a moron slowplaying a set and now is afraid you don't have an ace and that you won't bet river so he can make his c/r on river that he loves, or he has a weak pair or complete air and thinks this looks like a perfect time for a donk bluff. If any of those scenarios is true you'll gain nothing with a raise since he folds his bluffs and you'll have to call a 3-bet when he's slowplaying. I don't think you see weak Ax that isn't a boat enough to make a raise profitable.

[milesdyson]

who check calls a set twice here? that is really rare.

12/0 over 8 hands does not mean much, and look, he coolcalled in the sb. immediately you should realize he is more likely to be bad than good since it's v. rare a good player coolcalls an ace in the sb vs. a hj open.

i'm discounting sets by ~100%. discounting A3/A8/A5 by ~100%. discounting AK/AQ by ~100%. discounting AJ by 50%. not discounting AT/A9/A7/A6 at all. discounting A4o/A2o by 100%.

vs. this range we're above 60%. he can't 3-bet all better hands (AT/AJ), and i expect to see 8x call a raise sometimes too.

i raise

[Gurravasa]

[ QUOTE ]
who check calls a set twice here? that is really rare.

12/0 over 8 hands does not mean much, and look, he coolcalled in the sb. immediately you should realize he is more likely to be bad than good since it's v. rare a good player coolcalls an ace in the sb vs. a hj open.

i'm discounting sets by ~100%. discounting A3/A8/A5 by ~100%. discounting AK/AQ by ~100%. discounting AJ by 50%. not discounting AT/A9/A7/A6 at all. discounting A4o/A2o by 100%.

vs. this range we're above 60%. he can't 3-bet all better hands (AT/AJ), and i expect to see 8x call a raise sometimes too.

i raise

[/ QUOTE ]

At my game slowplaying is not rare at all. At a tough game like 5/T on PS it's probably rare, but at soft 2/4 and 3/6 games there are lots of morons that thinks they have to slowplay to get value with there good hands. Today one guy limped with AA and checked all streets on a drawy board and won 2 SB.

[BigBadBabar]

i raisecall.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
You're calling all 3-bets though so you have to take that into account.

[/ QUOTE ]

also take into account you have the nuts.

raise/call, next hand