NL100 set on monotone flop 170BB's , 3 way w/ DONK, min raise

[getsky]

OK, well I see the consensus was to raise. Seriously though, I put the guy on the flush 100% of the time here with a min raise.

So given that I know he has a flush, and I know that he is not folding, wouldn't that make a shove a bad move ?

If he is folding 0% of the time, how can a shove be +EV here ? <font color="red"> What are the odds of a set turning into a FH by the river, and how often would villian have to fold for it to be +EV ???</font>

So...for the rest of the hand, I just called, and am presented with an unexpected turn of events....

So..now there is 235 in the pot, and I have 124 left..this is an easy shove I'm sure. So I shoved and caught a 10 for quads..ship a 460BB pot my way



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($89.77)
Button ($248.39)
Hero ($170.91)
BB ($100)
UTG ($100)
MP ($135.48)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $6, CO calls $6, Button calls $6.

Flop: ($29) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, MP folds, CO calls $20, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $40</font>, Hero calls $20, CO calls $89.77 (All-In), Button calls $42.77, Hero calls $170.41 (All-In), Button calls $81.14.

Turn: ($466.59) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: ($466.59) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $466.59

[getsky]

so there is not a single person here who would advocate a call over a raise on the flop ???

[SpleenLSD]

I think your chances of hitting quads or a FH by the river are 7 outs x 3.8 = 28%. If you *really* knew that he had a flush natch a push is bad, but you don't *really* know, do you?

[cbboy]

Did he have the royal flush? Hahahaha!

[troxx]

did you play the hand on a jackpot table? otherwhise you should have had fingers crossed he had royal. As played all my money went in at the flop. 28% is the exact calculation. I keep in my it's around 15% per street. Turn a little less, river a little more (one more card which can duplicate).

[tripledrawrocks]

i would prob just call turn minraise

[cjp010]

Shove, lots of people like to play a strong K or a A of clubs this same way.