Bar Stool Pundits week 2

[paperchamp]

Pay attention and you might learn something. There are many people here with good insight on sports betting and they will give it to you for free if you play nicely. You have to understand that we get tired of new people coming in here every NFL season talking about locks (public road favs none the less).

As for your question, sharps will bet road favorites if they see value, but, there seldom is none. It really has nothing to do with adjusting for the way the season is going. That would probably involve variance which can span an entire season or more (especially in football).

[CutCreator]

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Pay attention and you might learn something. There are many people here with good insight on sports betting and they will give it to you for free if you play nicely. You have to understand that we get tired of new people coming in here every NFL season talking about locks (public road favs none the less).

As for your question, sharps will bet road favorites if they see value, but, there seldom is none. It really has nothing to do with adjusting for the way the season is going. That would probably involve variance wcan span an entire season or more (especially in football).

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Thanks, I hear you totally, I learned that this week.

So you are saying that the Sharps wont factor in how a team played a week before, 2 weeks before, matchups, etc? Its all math? I think this what I am struggling with because its such an ingrained part of my picking strategy.

Stanford Wongs book is on its way to my house from amazon. I think from what I have read about it, it will help me greatly.

[paperchamp]

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So you are saying that the Sharps wont factor in how a team played a week before, 2 weeks before, matchups, etc? Its all math? I think this what I am struggling with because its such an ingrained part of my picking strategy.


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Actually I was referring to the part of your post when you asked if people made an adjustment in 2005 by picking road favorites because they did well that year.

Handicapping games is very hard and I think that you can be a winning bettor without doing it yourself. A good way to start is to look at the line and consider all the biases that might be built into that line and to realize that the lines tend to overreact (last weeks blowout, an overrated team, an underrated team, injuries, public perception, etc.)

[Lori]

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I was repeating because I didnt think it was addressed. It you were not shocked by tampa being up 21-0 then more props to you. Thats excellent. However all I am saying is that its easy to come on here after the fact and say it. And while I might be repetitive, its because people keep bringing up the lock aspect which I never said, or weather or not it was a bad bet. I never said it wasent a bad bet, and I was obviously wrong, the Saints have major problems. I dont defend bad bets or mistakes because that is foolish, if I gave that impression then that is my fault.

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Just to clarify further, you're not just repeating yourself, you're repeating what tens of people have said before you.

Also to clarify, I'm unlikely to be shocked if any team leads any other team by 21 points, this particular one however was well down the list of potential candidates.
You're playing a game with a ball that doesn't roll properly and where 12 inches error on a 40 yard pass can mean the wrong team gets hold of it. The players on the field have come from a pool of thousands of college players, and even the bad ones are actually pretty good.. we just expect them all to match the top 50% of the NFL rather than of the entire country.
It should be difficult for any short term event to shock you if you bear those things in mind.

Lori

[cjk164]

Stumbled across this analysis this morning.

First post! Go easy on me. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[IggyWH]

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Stumbled across this analysis this morning.

First post! Go easy on me. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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That was quite an interesting read.

[dtan05]

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Stumbled across this analysis this morning.

First post! Go easy on me. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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That was quite an interesting read.

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