Should I be shoving this ?

[kev123]

Thx for your replies Slik, I`ve never really worked through the maths in this way so I was just wondering how you got 77% of the time 5 players will fold ?

After making the play & going out, I thought about how often I would get called & I had thought it would be 1/3 although I had given them a looser calling range... I think top 5% at this stage given the stack sizes is more accurate.

Would you recommend any books or posts to read to help me with calculations like these.

Kev

[flopman]

[ QUOTE ]
I was just wondering how you got 77% of the time 5 players will fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]
He is assuming each player only calls you with top 5% of the hands so the other 95% of time they will fold. You have 5 players behind you so 95% power to 5 and you get 77% of time all 5 players fold.

[slik]

As flopman mentioned, 77% = .95 ^ 5

I'm not sure if top 5% as their calling ranges is accurate or not, I hadn't read your initial post carefully enough. You knew the players much better than me, for all I know 10% may have been more accurate. But obviously as their calling ranges increase, your pushing expectation decreases.

It's been a while since I've read Harrington on Holdem, but I believe he makes a lot of similar calculations throughout his books. If you haven't read those, they're definitely a good read.

Not sure where to direct you wrt these problems. You can try searching by my 2+2 username and filter for *Tournament Poker* ---. But you may have to go through 100 posts to find 5-10 relevant posts. Or you can try posting in the other tournament forums and ask for direction. I'm sure someone will direct you to the proper posts.

GL.