#1
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OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
Alright, lets establish a few ground rules:
1) Please no trolling in this thread. Do not post in this thread if you do not have legitimate things to add. Jokes can be saved for BBV. Don't clutter this thread, I don't want to sift through 40 posts to find one thing with substance. 2) Only substance in responses. 3) In general, only respond if you are directly effected and have played against our named list of suspected super-players (again, unless you have something to ADD that is worthwhile). 4) If you are effected, I would appreciate if you construct a similar type write up and post it here or in your own thread. What we also need to do is combine into 1 database, and do this type of thing, and to be able to get some EXACT numbers about these peoples' postflop tendencies (similar to like what Dan Druff said in the thread that got moved... "In 845 hands, PLAYERABC made what we would call river valuebets 74 times. He got called and won 74 of them. He checked behind with 34 showdownable hands that COULD be debatable valuebets, and lost 33 of them." ) MY GRAYCAT REPORT TO COME IN 5 MINUTES. |
#2
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
In these 173 hands, only once does he call a river bet with a worse hand ( http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489653 occurring on Aug 14th, before the AP updates near the end of the month) and only once does he call a river bet with the best hand. The only time he bets the river and gets called by better is when his hand has no showdown value to begin with. In these 173 hands, not once did he ever come close to paying me off when I flopped something good, and he checked behind when I flopped pairs quite often, unless he had my pair beat. This hand is the most money I won in a pot ever, against him (would be curious for AP to check and see what he called with; it seems most likely he has a ten in his hand, yet he doesn’t pay off river): http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489803 In these 173 hands, in only 16 of them does he lose at least $1000. Yet, he has played 67.05% of them and raised 57.23% of them. Of these 16, you would think that means he has paid off with a second best in a lot of them. However, not once has he. In the most expensive one, he lost $2400, and folded to a single river bet in a HU pot on this board (after he was the aggressor in other streets): *** [3h 6c 5s Kd] [4c]***. In his other $2400 loss, he had 5 high and 3 bet the turn against two opponents (and bet river), one of who has A5 high and the other has K9 high. The next one, -$2200, is also a pure bluff against 1 hand which does not have a pair (but called down). The next, -$2000, is tough to gather much from: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489830 The next, -$1800, he again puts in a lot of action on the flop on a draw heavy board, and then folds for 1 bet on the river when a draw hitting card comes. I could keep going like this, but the basic point is graycat always manages to lose the minimum if he’s beat, unless his opponents themselves have marginal hands and he tries and fails to blow them out of the pot with even worse. He never loses money with second best hands. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489646 is not a hand that seems synonymous with someone who plays a hand like this: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489653 Very suspect amount of action: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489661 Very suspect postflop play unless you can see your opponent has an underpair to the board: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489669 Questionable preflop line that lacks congruence with postflop line when you are as big of a maniac as he is. Would make sense to cap preflop if you see other’s hands and know you have live cards. Anyway, the fact he check calls flop and turn is telling that he knows he’s drawing and is no longer is going to continue with his “bluff” (most maniacs in my experience would bet this flop with their OESD): http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489674 Tough river bet for someone to make who has yet to not play every river perfectly: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489682 Yet another strong river value raise by a guy who has never bet/raised a river and been called and lost unless he is on a bluff 5 hi bluff: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489695 He has insanely aggressive stats, yet knows to check and call flop here with flush draw: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489702 His only check call with the best hand (goes against cheater theory): http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489715 Made perfect postflop decisions: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489726 Played JUST like someone who know’s his opponent’s hand: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489735 NOTICE comparatively, he has nothing here, yet gives up on the river once he gets called on the turn: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489744 Three-bets pf and checks flop, opponent has him beat: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489771 Does not prove anything but it would be interesting to have AP check to see what Graycat folded: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489778 Again would be interesting to have AP check to see what Graycat folded (also, SCHDNFRD what did you have here? IF you had a draw that got there, this is more support for graycat seeing hands and simply pounding at your draw, hoping you miss): http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489785 Don’t know what to make of this hand other than betting the flop isn’t that bad of an idea when the guy after you has 66 and the next guy has KQ: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1489793 I feel like what I have here is not enough to *prove* Graycat cheats; though, I feel like if we combined our databases and were able to find more proof of perfect postflop decision-making over a larger sample of hands, we get him. In my hands, I did not see any actual postflop *mistakes* by him -- ie, it does *feel* like he's playing with extra knowledge. |
#3
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
Do you have timeframe for that? These are from July 15th:
STAGE #708090317: HOLDEM NORMAL $150/$300 - 2007-07-15 01:38:32 (ET) Table: IDELA AVE (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer Seat 3 - BUGSTUD ($5040 in chips) Seat 4 - CALVINHOBBES ($28516.50 in chips) Seat 5 - EZ2PLY ($6000 in chips) Seat 6 - DONKOFHOLDEM ($8995 in chips) Seat 7 - SCARY_TIGER ($8135 in chips) Seat 1 - GRAYCAT ($2609.48 in chips) Seat 2 - JAKETTE ($4210 in chips) CALVINHOBBES - Posts small blind $100 EZ2PLY - Posts big blind $150 *** POCKET CARDS *** Dealt to SCARY_TIGER [5h Ks] DONKOFHOLDEM - Folds SCARY_TIGER - Folds GRAYCAT - Raises $300 to $300 JAKETTE - Folds BUGSTUD - Raises $450 to $450 CALVINHOBBES - Folds EZ2PLY - Folds GRAYCAT - Raises $300 to $600 BUGSTUD - Calls $150 *** FLOP *** [10s Js 3d] GRAYCAT - Bets $150 BUGSTUD - Calls $150 *** TURN *** [10s Js 3d] [2d] GRAYCAT - Bets $300 BUGSTUD - Calls $300 *** RIVER *** [10s Js 3d 2d] [6d] GRAYCAT - Checks BUGSTUD - Bets $300 GRAYCAT - Calls $300 *** SHOW DOWN *** BUGSTUD - Shows [8c 8h] (One pair, eights) GRAYCAT - Mucks BUGSTUD Collects $2945 from main pot *** SUMMARY *** Total Pot($2950) | Rake ($5) Board [10s Js 3d 2d 6d] Seat 1: GRAYCAT HI: [Mucked] [Ac Kh] Seat 2: JAKETTE Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 3: BUGSTUD (dealer) won Total ($2945) HI$2945) with One pair, eights [8c 8h - P:8h,P:8c,B:Js,B:10s,B:6d] Seat 4: CALVINHOBBES (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 5: EZ2PLY (big blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 6: DONKOFHOLDEM Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 7: SCARY_TIGER Folded on the POCKET CARDS STAGE #708087121: HOLDEM NORMAL $150/$300 - 2007-07-15 01:34:04 (ET) Table: IDELA AVE (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer Seat 2 - JAKETTE ($4660 in chips) Seat 3 - BUGSTUD ($7595 in chips) Seat 4 - CALVINHOBBES ($26526.50 in chips) Seat 6 - DONKOFHOLDEM ($7500 in chips) Seat 7 - SCARY_TIGER ($8385 in chips) Seat 1 - GRAYCAT ($2869.48 in chips) BUGSTUD - Posts small blind $100 CALVINHOBBES - Posts big blind $150 GRAYCAT - Posts $150 *** POCKET CARDS *** Dealt to SCARY_TIGER [7d Qc] DONKOFHOLDEM - Raises $300 to $300 SCARY_TIGER - Folds GRAYCAT - Calls $150 JAKETTE - Folds BUGSTUD - Folds CALVINHOBBES - Calls $150 *** FLOP *** [9s 2d Ac] CALVINHOBBES - Checks DONKOFHOLDEM - Bets $150 GRAYCAT - Raises $300 to $300 CALVINHOBBES - Folds DONKOFHOLDEM - Raises $300 to $450 GRAYCAT - Calls $150 *** TURN *** [9s 2d Ac] [8s] DONKOFHOLDEM - Bets $300 GRAYCAT - Calls $300 *** RIVER *** [9s 2d Ac 8s] [10h] DONKOFHOLDEM - Bets $300 GRAYCAT - Calls $300 *** SHOW DOWN *** DONKOFHOLDEM - Shows [Ah Qs] (One pair, aces) GRAYCAT - Mucks DONKOFHOLDEM Collects $3095 from main pot *** SUMMARY *** Total Pot($3100) | Rake ($5) Board [9s 2d Ac 8s 10h] Seat 1: GRAYCAT HI: [Mucked] [4c Ad] Seat 2: JAKETTE (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 3: BUGSTUD (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 4: CALVINHOBBES (big blind) Folded on the FLOP Seat 6: DONKOFHOLDEM won Total ($3095) HI$3095) with One pair, aces(queen kicker) [Ah Qs - P:Ah,B:Ac,P:Qs,B:10h,B:9s] Seat 7: SCARY_TIGER Folded on the POCKET CARDS STAGE #708091217: HOLDEM NORMAL $150/$300 - 2007-07-15 01:39:47 (ET) Table: IDELA AVE (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer Seat 5 - EZ2PLY ($14750 in chips) Seat 6 - DONKOFHOLDEM ($8845 in chips) Seat 7 - SCARY_TIGER ($8135 in chips) Seat 1 - GRAYCAT ($1509.48 in chips) Seat 2 - JAKETTE ($4210 in chips) Seat 3 - BUGSTUD ($6635 in chips) Seat 4 - CALVINHOBBES ($28416.50 in chips) DONKOFHOLDEM - Posts small blind $100 SCARY_TIGER - Posts big blind $150 *** POCKET CARDS *** Dealt to SCARY_TIGER [10c Kd] GRAYCAT - Raises $300 to $300 JAKETTE - Folds BUGSTUD - Folds CALVINHOBBES - Folds EZ2PLY - Folds DONKOFHOLDEM - Folds SCARY_TIGER - Calls $150 *** FLOP *** [Ks Kh Qh] SCARY_TIGER - Checks GRAYCAT - Bets $150 SCARY_TIGER - Raises $300 to $300 GRAYCAT - Raises $300 to $450 SCARY_TIGER - Calls $150 *** TURN *** [Ks Kh Qh] [8s] SCARY_TIGER - Checks GRAYCAT - Bets $300 SCARY_TIGER - Raises $600 to $600 GRAYCAT - All-In(Raise) $459.48 to $759.48 SCARY_TIGER - Calls $159.48 *** RIVER *** [Ks Kh Qh 8s] [Jc] *** SHOW DOWN *** GRAYCAT - Shows [Js 4s] (Two Pair, kings and jacks) SCARY_TIGER - Shows [10c Kd] (Three of a kind, kings) SCARY_TIGER Collects $3113.96 from main pot *** SUMMARY *** Total Pot($3118.96) | Rake ($5) Board [Ks Kh Qh 8s Jc] Seat 1: GRAYCAT HI:lost with Two Pair, kings and jacks [Js 4s - B:Ks,B:Kh,P:Js,B:Jc,B:Qh] Seat 2: JAKETTE Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 3: BUGSTUD Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 4: CALVINHOBBES Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 5: EZ2PLY (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 6: DONKOFHOLDEM (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 7: SCARY_TIGER (big blind) won Total ($3113.96) HI$3113.96) with Three of a kind, kings [10c Kd - B:Ks,B:Kh,P:Kd,B:Qh,B:Jc] So over the course of ten hands he called with a worse hand on the river twice and actually busted in the last hand. But yeah, I only have 10 hands on GRAYCAT at 150/300 and he dropped 10 bets. So nothing seemed suspicious the one time I played with him. |
#4
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
8/14/07 which was 9 hands (and also the time he called my river bet with worse), and the rest on the 27th and 28th of August. A lot of these suspicions about Graycat arose around that later time period, which I believe someone was saying immediately after the latest AP update. I'm not 100% saying Graycat is guilty of anything, though I know people who think that a few of our names are actually the same person.
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#5
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
I would feel comfortable saying that Graycat wasn't cheating before the patch. Afterwards I have no idea. He was a huge donor and would often jam a ridiculous amount of bets when drawing dead. In the small sample I have on him he's down nearly 20k.
Sure he sometimes does schizo things like 3 bet and c/f when you flop the nuts, but if I recall he also does things like 3 bet and c/f when you have J high. |
#6
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
There's no question that they are all the same person, for several reasons.
Perhaps they are in a number of different names, but it's clearly the same person behind all of the accounts. Even if it isn't just one person, it is at the very least one person in cahoots with the others. For simplicity's sake, I think we can treat all of the suspect accounts as belonging to one guy. |
#7
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
Also, what Schneids did was a good start. Everyone with Pokertracker records on this guy needs to compile them into a "report" like Schneids made and post it here.
173 hands, as suspicious as they are, won't be a strong enough case. |
#8
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
Heard about this thread in absolute chat box. Here is my hands against GrayCat. 1 session played on 8/06, 1 on 8/14 and 2 on 8/15. All hands against me. Comments to come shortly. I am far from convinced that he is cheating.
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#9
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
Does anybody know the dates when these players showed up? I have an old hard drive with alot of hands from absolute on it that I was going to throw away but I would definetly look at it if these guys were around before feb 07 as I am down 5k so far and would like to see if I lost any more.
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#10
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Re: OK lets get this ball rolling (AP)
fog, the shady stuff seems to be after the 8/23 update. Play them anytime since?
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