Fourflush on the river with TPGK

[Landonfan]

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I'm still not convinced this is an easy call.

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And it's not, indeed. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Wait what hand are we talking about? I should read stuff more closely [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

edit: oic

[Xylocain]

Yep, it was your hand.

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I had seen this Villain calling down with a weak holding (like 3PNK) at least three times before and that's why I decided to bet.

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This reasoning is inconsistent with calling the raise right?

If I inteded to call a raise if I bet, I would still prefer to check behind.

[ChickenGeorge]

Well he was seeing literally every flop (VPIP 100%) and given this I strongly believe my river bet was a pure value bet.

I admit that after the raise I found it really hard to fold for one more bet in a pot this big, hence the crying call...

[Xylocain]

well, yes the bet is for value... but you have seen him call down with crap when you were ahead and now all of a sudden he goes [censored]! do you still think he has air enough to call even though his standard line is to call down with hands that you beat?

I really dont want to fold in a pot this size and I cant see calling a raise, I think that is my point.

The thing is that on the river in position with a strong hand or in a big pot (where you would call a raise) you have to be ahead almost always to bet and raise for value. (because you make 0 to +1 BB when ahead and loose 2BB when behind and if you b/f incorrectly that is a monstrous mistake)

[ChickenGeorge]

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I really dont want to fold in a pot this size and I cant see calling a raise, I think that is my point.

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That's why it's called a crying call. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


Anyway I ran poker stove and got the following results:

Board: Ts 5h 8h 6d 3h
Dead:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.125% 79.97% 00.16% 84293053 173061.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 19.875% 19.71% 00.16% 20778268 173061.00 { random } </pre><hr />

I just assumed Villain's hand is random. Let's also assume Villain raises every time he has us beat and we make a crying call (= -2BB), because the pot is big. When he is behind, he calls X% of the time and we gain X BB. (0 &lt;= X &lt;= 1.0)

0.8*X + 0.2*(-2) = 0
=&gt; X = 0.5

Using the b/c line we need him to call with a worse hand at least 50% of the time to break even. Quite interesting. 50% is not a low number at all. So these results suggest that b/c line is most likely only marginally profitable*.

(BTW, I went to check this player's folded-to-river-bet % and PT says it's currently 28.57%, 2 times out of 7)


*In reality it's probably a bit worse, because Villain does fold at least some of the hands before the river, so his holding there is slightly better than random.
But on the other hand this also means that he would probably call a bit more often...

Whatever, I complicated this way too much. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Aceium]

72/0/.55 !?!?

So villan has ATC here if I'm reading that right. I don't think you're ahead here very often, but yes the pot is big so call. Muck to his 2 of spades.