Fourflush on the river with TPGK - Page 2

ChickenGeorge · #11 09-16-2007, 07:33 AM

Villain is BB with stats 100/21/0.79 over 28 hands. Very lose preflop but after that he goes very passive and just calls down any pair and sometimes even A-high. I didn't see him raising postflop so far.

Titan Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1.00 (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
1 folds, MP1 calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls,

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( 6.5SB, 3 players )
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, 1 folds,

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( 4.25BB )
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls,

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( 6.25BB )
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls,

All standard, except for the river. That card completed a flush draw and there was also a possibility for a slow-played straight on the turn. Anyway I didn't check behind because it wasn't necessary that I was beat. Based on my reads so far he could also have had a weaker pair (saw him a couple of times already), thus I didn't want to miss a potential value bet.
When he raised I knew I was beat. So easy fold. Yet I made a crying call because I only need to catch him bluffing 10% of the time to justify it. Sometimes it happens...

Now check the results (in white):
Hero has Qh, Qd
BB has Qs, 9h
Outcome: Hero wins 9.6BB

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

n1_pete · #12 09-16-2007, 08:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is BB with stats 100/21/0.79 over 28 hands. Very lose preflop but after that he goes very passive and just calls down any pair and sometimes even A-high. I didn't see him raising postflop so far.

Titan Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1.00 (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
1 folds, MP1 calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls,

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( 6.5SB, 3 players )
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, 1 folds,

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( 4.25BB )
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls,

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( 6.25BB )
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls,

All standard, except for the river. That card completed a flush draw and there was also a possibility for a slow-played straight on the turn. Anyway I didn't check behind because it wasn't necessary that I was beat. Based on my reads so far he could also have had a weaker pair (saw him a couple of times already), thus I didn't want to miss a potential value bet.
When he raised I knew I was beat. So easy fold. Yet I made a crying call because I only need to catch him bluffing 10% of the time to justify it. Sometimes it happens...

Now check the results (in white):
Hero has Qh, Qd
BB has Qs, 9h
Outcome: Hero wins 9.6BB

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

nice play and like the thought behind it.

jeanbaptiste36 · #13 09-16-2007, 02:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No, no and no. We don't have a read here. 22 hands is nothing and AF converges much slower than some other stats.

I call this river against the unknown. I expect to lose to a flush of course, but sometimes people surprise you. IMO they bluff more often than just ~12% of the time here. I have seen this before often enough to think that we can't really be at least 88% sure we're beat. And take a note if you catch him bluffing or betting a low flush.

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If the pot would have been 10BB at the river, where I arbitrarily put the calling cutoff-point, I would have called. Since the difference between 12% and 10% is not that large. I think we have to call.

Besides would he bet here if he had the flush, he would check-raise, right?

ChickenGeorge · #14 09-16-2007, 04:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Besides would he bet here if he had the flush, he would check-raise, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily. It's actually player dependent. Some straightforward bad players who only play their cards bet it right away ("wow, I have a flush!"), while some other bad players think they are smart if they play tricky poker and try to c/r you at every opportunity, even though they risk a check behind by a solid opponent (they don't even think about it of course).

It's hard to say without any reads. Players of both types exist.

milesdyson · #15 09-16-2007, 04:29 PM

"Besides would he bet here if he had the flush, he would check-raise, right? "

no because they don't want non-flushes to check behind

Xylocain · #16 09-16-2007, 04:33 PM

Does everyone hate a check behind on this river? There are a lot of worse hands that are calling but FDs and SDs must be a huge part of vils range and Im not sure I would risk 2 BB to find out.

milesdyson · #17 09-16-2007, 05:09 PM

i'd check behind

Landonfan · #18 09-16-2007, 05:12 PM

Miles, what do you do with the hand as played?

I'm still not convinced this is an easy call.

ChickenGeorge · #19 09-16-2007, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does everyone hate a check behind on this river? There are a lot of worse hands that are calling but FDs and SDs must be a huge part of vils range and Im not sure I would risk 2 BB to find out.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you talking about my hand here?

In general I agree and a lot of times I check behind too, but in this case my river bet was based on a pretty good read - I had seen this Villain calling down with a weak holding (like 3PNK) at least three times before and that's why I decided to bet.

ChickenGeorge · #20 09-16-2007, 05:23 PM

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I'm still not convinced this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]
And it's not, indeed. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]