Fourflush on the river with TPGK

[jeanbaptiste36]

Villain is 72/0/0.55 over 22 hands.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero...

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

I think the river is close, probably beaten but the pot is almost too big to fold.

[Riku]

I think you answered it :-)

[Bona]

I can fold this against a passive opponent (like this one if I had a few more hands on him) whom I haven't seen bluff the river.

I can call it against a relative unknown whose cards I haven't seen very often at showdown or against a tricky/aggressive player whom I have seen bluff the river when the pot is this size or larger.

In this specific case I don't think a fold will cost you anything but if you want to buy a read on this player it would probably be OK once.

[bennyhana]

[ QUOTE ]
I can fold this against a passive opponent (like this one if I had a few more hands on him) whom I haven't seen bluff the river.

I can call it against a relative unknown whose cards I haven't seen very often at showdown or against a tricky/aggressive player whom I have seen bluff the river when the pot is this size or larger.

In this specific case I don't think a fold will cost you anything but if you want to buy a read on this player it would probably be OK once.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

[ReidDeCardes]

* Grunch *

I fold river. I think you are beaten and 6.5 BB is not that big. His stats show very little aggression so that fact that he bet the river indicates. to me, that he has a flush. Do you think he would try to steal this? He is looking at the same cards and if he doesn't have the flush then I think he would not have bet the river.

Rest is good.

[Landonfan]

7.5 bbs isn't that big, and he probably has exactly what it looks like he has. This looks like a fold.

[ChickenGeorge]

No, no and no. We don't have a read here. 22 hands is nothing and AF converges much slower than some other stats.

I call this river against the unknown. I expect to lose to a flush of course, but sometimes people surprise you. IMO they bluff more often than just ~12% of the time here. I have seen this before often enough to think that we can't really be at least 88% sure we're beat. And take a note if you catch him bluffing or betting a low flush.

[Smurph64]

NFW I fold this. Easy call. Mark it down.

[Landonfan]

[ QUOTE ]
No, no and no. We don't have a read here. 22 hands is nothing and AF converges much slower than some other stats.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand that af is unreliable, but +70% vpip and no pf raises is fairly significant, even if for just 22 hands. I know that's not a reliable read, but I'll guarantee you that his chances of being a passive moron are a lot higher than his chances of being tricky and aggressive.

The call/call/donk scary river line is rarely ever a bluff. If you must call for a read, go ahead. TBH, it's probably closer than I first thought, but I still think it's a fold.

[n1_pete]

agree, i call river this time for the read - this time only tho. pot so small would be a fold any other situatin. but 70%vpip and 0.0pfr he's passive pain in rear and probably hit here. rest of hand played fine.