Simple EV question vs narrow range

[sharky01]

So let's take the following example of a hand:

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $81.15
Hero (BB): $54.40
UTG: $64.60
MP: $42.00
CO: $24.45
BTN: $47.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, MP calls $2.50, SB folds

Flop: ($6.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $13.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $51.40</font>, MP folds

Pot Size: $71.40 ($1.65 Rake)

Assume he calls this push 45% of the time and when he does so he has a set (so we have 29% equity versus this set). The rest of the time he simply folds.

I just want to check if my EV calculations for this scenario is correct.

He calls|Has set|We lose $50 = (0.45 * 0.71 * -50) = $-15.975

He calls|Has set|We win $100 = (0.45 * 0.29 * +100) = $13.05

He folds | We win ($6.50 + $18.50) = (0.55 * +25)= $13.75

Therefore the EV is -$15.975 + $13.05 + $13.75 = +$10.82

I think my last line maybe incorrect. Any pointers on this would be really helpful.

Thanks.

[whyzze]

you could be drawing dead

[sharky01]

Please ignore that thanks hence why I said only vs sets. I just want help with the calcs vs Sets,

[whyzze]

you need to account for the possibility of the board pairing...and he is never folding a set imo

[sharky01]

Those percentages are poker stove calcs and include that. I;m saying that 55% of the time he folds JJ or air etc.

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
Those percentages are poker stove calcs and include that. I;m saying that 55% of the time he folds JJ or air etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

you cant include sets and other hands and not include flushes and straights..it will just make your calculation wrong

[sharky01]

Dude Im doing this as a theory based thing just to check my maths. I know this isn't real life I just want my calcs checked. Seriously just chill out telling me its completly wrong - I know its not real life.

[whyzze]

in that case your math looks fine and you last line is correct.