Interesting Rizen hand in the WPT Gulf Coast Championship

stakman1011 · #1 09-14-2007, 08:14 PM

I was reading through Rizen's blog and came across this hand:

"I raised 4 3 of hearts from the cut off and it was folded around to the big blind who re-raised, but he was fairly deep stacked and his re-raise was kind of small. So I went ahead and called. The flop came 9 6 3 with two hearts. So I had the pair plus the flush draw and he pushed in for 22,000 chips. That was about as good as a flop I can have but I can't play that hand without fold equity or some sort of pot odds or something there was no way I was ahead. I was pretty sure he was pushing some sort of over pair and just didn't want me to call or do anything to draw out on him."

This surprised me very much. If we give villain two black aces (Rizen said he read him for an overpair) then we have the best hand, no? Is this a case of the famed passing up a small edge early? I thought the consensus was not to pass up any edge in an mtt?

I would think, if we put villain on a big pair, that calling would be correct.

Also, I wasn't at the table but I would imagine villain has AK some small percentage of the time, surely more often than he has some hand that has us in bad shape like a set or higher fd.

Rizen is a much better player than I am, surely. Can anyone take a shot as to his thought process and reason for folding? Are there any of you who would call in the same spot?

curtains · #2 09-14-2007, 08:27 PM

Ok I don't know how much was in the pot when he pushed, but if it's anything somewhat signifigant, it should be a very easy call. If he pushes 22k into 2k then you could consider folding, but if he pushed 22k into like 6k+ then you really shouldn't as you are often having 45% equity at least.

Bond18 · #3 09-14-2007, 08:27 PM

Villain never has set here.

If villain has AA no heart, Rizen is 51.6% here.

If villain has AA with heart, Rizen is 46.2% here.

Villain has Ah half the time so combined he's 48.9%.

Factor in the money in the pot and that ever so rarely villain is a donk with high card and it looks like a super slim call to me.

Also, obv villain has pairs outside AA in his range, but that was a good point to go from for calculations and things don't change much JJ-AA

jtomon · #4 09-14-2007, 09:31 PM

I think this is AK almost never unless they are hearts. Screams of an overpair so we have 14 outs twice. Small edge but I'm folding here too.

stakman1011 · #5 09-14-2007, 10:15 PM

Really?

It's a reraised pot and we're going to knowingly fold the best hand on the flop?

I guess I'm so confused by this hand because I (rather naively and foolishly) think of Rizen as some "perfect TAG who never makes a mistake" and to hear him talking about folding here doesn't jive with that notion.

Ansky · #6 09-14-2007, 10:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain never has set here.

If villain has AA no heart, Rizen is 51.6% here.

If villain has AA with heart, Rizen is 46.2% here.

Villain has Ah half the time so combined he's 48.9%.

Factor in the money in the pot and that ever so rarely villain is a donk with high card and it looks like a super slim call to me.

Also, obv villain has pairs outside AA in his range, but that was a good point to go from for calculations and things don't change much JJ-AA

[/ QUOTE ]

throw in AKhh AQhh...

Rizen · #7 09-14-2007, 11:32 PM

FWIW this is at 100/200. there was abuot 4k in the pot when he pushed. This early in a super deep stacked event like this (especially at the super soft table I was at) I'm more than willing to pass up this kind of slight edge for this much of my stack.

Change the stack sizes or the blinds a bit and I'd probably beat him into the pot, but not when I was like 125 BB deep against super weak players.

-Rizen

[ QUOTE ]
Ok I don't know how much was in the pot when he pushed, but if it's anything somewhat signifigant, it should be a very easy call. If he pushes 22k into 2k then you could consider folding, but if he pushed 22k into like 6k+ then you really shouldn't as you are often having 45% equity at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

stakman1011 · #8 09-15-2007, 12:12 AM

Fair enough, and thanks for the response Rizen. It's always appreciated when you contribute to strat threads. One more question for curiosity sake.

If you knew for 100 per cent certain that he had two black aces (ignoring how you found out, rules about exposing hands etc. etc.) do you still fold?

Also, is this something you would ever do online (in the Sunday Million? in the 109 rebuy?) or was it simply a matter of being deepstacked with poor players in a live setting that made it worthwhile?