NL30 (200bb buyin): Trips and we're 450 bbs deep

[stonescar]

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Calling his raise first check/raise is so bad. You have trips, top kicker on a very drawy board and very deep. If you want to get any value at all from your hand you need to start building this pot and you also need to be able to get protection from club draws out there.

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I'm not experienced in deep stack situations, and I'm not saying my line or reasoning is perfect - I'm open for discussion on this subject, and I'm here to learn.

That said, I don't understand how calling his check-raise can be "so bad", and I don't agree that we have to raise flop to get value with this hand - this can easily turn into a ~400bb pot with just two more bets, and I think that potsize would get value from a wide range. Obviously you might lose some value from worse trips, but at the same time you save money when behind. If you want to play for stacks here, I agree that a raise is in order - the question is whether it's the most EV+ play.

There is a flush draw, but the board is paired and there are no other draws, this board is fairly dry. I think FDs only make up a small portion of villains range. Is protecting your hand really an issue at this point in the hand?

I'm not saying 400bb is the perfect potsize, or that reraising is a losing play, I'm just trying to understand what makes the most money vs villains entire range. Weaker trips and pps might be willing to put more money in the pot if you don't raise the flop, but if it makes up for losing value from KJ I'm not sure. I just think there are several things to consider before building a huge pot/committing, and there might be more than one line with merit here.

I think this situation is more opponent dependant than anything, but I'd love to get some more input on this situation.

EDIT:
Or is this really a no-brainer commitment against even the nittiest of players? I could of course be overestimating villains ability to get a way from a worse hand - maybe just the lack of more defined reads makes this an easy commitment against the range of average decent-ish players at nl30.

[mackthefork]

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well you can´t squarely put him on 33 can you? there are enough j that come along for the ride... this is only 30nl

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I'm thinking Ac is the card you want to see on the turn.

Mack