Another Investment Fish Seeks Advice

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I take it I shouldn't be looking at a house until the market crashes a bit more?

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As a RE guy, I'd suggest that you DO NOT attempt to time the RE market. Despite what all the "experts" say, we simply don't know how long the down RE market will last. We certainly don't know what will happen in any specific market (i.e., yours).

My advice would be to buy a house as soon as you can afford it, and you are ready. I wouldn't suggest that you wait on the vague notion that the market might slump just a little bit lower.

One other thing: Down RE markets are, fundamentally, caused by lenders. Lenders started to get hit w/ defaults, so they tighten up lending criteria. This disqualifies a lot of potential buyers. Also, interest rates rise to reflect the lender's perceived risk. That means that the guy that could afford a $160k house at 6%, can only afford a $140k house at 7.5%. Plus he's gotta now come up with 10-20% down, which further diminishes the pool of buyers.

All that causes prices to go down. But, there is a problem when it comes to your situation. Namely, as a pro poker player you're not going to be too attractive to too many banks right now, and you'll probably end up paying a relatively high interest rate on the money. That is neither here nor there necessarily. But it means that the low prices in the down market are, in terms of monthly payments, made up for by virtue of the higher interest rates.

The point is that buying a house at a great price might not make much difference to you immediately. I will in 4 or 5 years when you refi, or when your house performs well in appreciation over time. But thats all speculation. If you're settled and not moving every year, and you can afford it, I'd suggest that you buy a house now. Don't try to time the market, just go get one that you like and will enjoy living in. Instead of paying that rent, you'll be putting that money into your own pocket.