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#13
09-12-2007, 01:28 PM
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Re: AA, how much do u bet here and what if raised....?
OK. When I first saw this post I had a response all typed up that basically said: Bet $27 and protect your hand. This is almost certainly what I would have done live.
Now I have been reading "Profesional No Limit Holdem Volume 1" and there is a concept in the book about controlling the size of the pot. The basic concept (from my understanding) is that you want to keep the pot small when you have a small hand (one pair) and make the pot big when you have a big hand. For the hand in question we got a call on the flop from an out of position player on a very scary board. Here is the range of drawing hands that I put him on: JTh, T8h, 98h, 97, 75 any flush draw. He could also have a made hand that has us crushed. The scare cards are: any heart, T, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, or 4. That makes 29 scare cards. He obviously does not have that many outs; however, if one of those cards hits and the villain goes all in we have to hate our hand. With a turn bet of $30 the pot would be $99 with around $140 behind. There is a lot of money in the pot and we have a very tough decision on the river. We could lose $49 if we fold and $189 if we call and lose. So with that said: My idea of checking the turn gives the villain a free card; however the pot would now be $39. If the villain goes all in we just insta-fold. If he makes a pot sized bet we have the option of calling. Here we lose $19 if we fold the river and $58 if we call a pot sized bet on the river and lose. Notice that in the case where we check and call a pot sized bet we only risk $10 more than the bet 2/3 on the turn and fold on the river AND we get to see a showdown with the possibility of picking off a river bluff. Overall the idea is to limit our risk with a vulnerable hand. Does this make sense? Please give me feedback if you disagree. I am not certain that I am applying this concept correctly. 
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