200NL - Turned set faces heat

[CazicT]

He's probably almost as likley to have 2 pair has he is to have a straight, but it's the possibility of the overpairs that are really scary to me.

Can he really have A8 and the like? I was giving him credit for only 98s, 78s, and 76s, of which there aren't really that many combos.

[FireStorm]

Calling here is fine, re-eval river. Yes this can bet 88/99/JT sometimes, but not often enough to blanket-statement "your hand is not good".

[Larude]

Can hero fold to an allin on the river if he is getting 1:3 (he needs to be good 25% of the time....)???

[Mr_Donktastic]

Villain can def have 2 pr.

The raise is smallish, I would call.

If river is UI idk what to tell you, prob c/c, although vs some villains I would c/f.

[Johnes Benjamin]

I think you are beat less often than the consensus seems to be. I feel like he's trying to slow you down a lot of the time here with Ax, and 2pairs are most certainly in his range.

I call and strongly consider calling river

[the_main]

I called.

I agree a shove is terrible, as we're only getting called by higher sets and JT.

River was interesting.

RIVER: (~$200): J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
the_main ?

check/call?
check/fold?
shove?

If I called the turn assuming 2pr or JT, this doesn't really change anything right? Unless he was semi-bluffing a with a pair and a ten in his hand, he's got to hate this card, right?

If he has a better set, does he ever lay it down?

[Larude]

I think this a a great topic and I like it that nobody agrees with me (in a way), so I will try to elaborate my line of thinking somewhat more. If we just call on the turn, what will happen on the river? (1) A blank comes off, villain will valuebet his 99, 88 and JTs if we check; do we fold getting 1:3 or do we call????? (1a) if we bet villain will certainly call with some two pair hands, but might he not have done the same thing on the turn if we shove because we are having AcKcKo, AcQcQo, AcJc and getting frisky? (2) A club comes off and we check; villain will valuebet a large amount of the time with his straight or set, because we would have bet almost 100% of the time if we had two clubs in our hand (either bet the river or shoved the turn); besides villain now has extra bluffing opportunities with Acxc (he will likely check out his two pair hand) which he will use some amount of the time.

To conclude: I think shoving the turn is the best line because we have enough equity against his range; villain will call with a lot of clubcombinations (which he might check down on the river if a blank comes off) + sometimes with twopair. If we just call there is not much to evaluate on the river, because villain will check behind if a non club comes with his Acxc club hands and two pair (we gain no value); and he will bet like 99% of the time the hands we lose to already even when a club comes off (because we would have bet made flushes on the river!!!)... Calling is also no good to boat up because we lose to a lot of two pair hands he has now if the board pairs + he will fold the rest. Shove turn if you think you have enough equity otherwise fold...

[Raised2Win]

[ QUOTE ]
I called.

I agree a shove is terrible, as we're only getting called by higher sets and JT.

River was interesting.

RIVER: (~$200): J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
the_main ?

check/call?
check/fold?
shove?

If I called the turn assuming 2pr or JT, this doesn't really change anything right? Unless he was semi-bluffing a with a pair and a ten in his hand, he's got to hate this card, right?

If he has a better set, does he ever lay it down?

[/ QUOTE ]

Block bet this river or check fold. Check call is the worst. I might just block bet this river. I dont block bet much but this seems like a spot to do so. bet 50 or under.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont block bet much but this seems like a spot to do so. bet 50 or under.

[/ QUOTE ]
Bleh, I hate that line. I assume you're folding to a raise?

I'd rather open-push the river and try to get a call from aces up tbh.