Week 3 NCAA Picks

[NajdorfDefense]

1) Again, I don't understand the refusal to adjust for a first-time starting QB in this analysis. If you think he will play as good as Henne, just say so [ anyone.] If not, pls comment on the effect that will have against a decent defense. The fact that none of the Mich/Over fans will do so is really making me wonder, now.

2) In the first 53 mins, ND's Def gave up 17 pts to PSU. In PSUs first 8 drives, they started at ND 27, PSU 49, 37, 37, etc and got 1 TD.

3) In the first 47 mins, ND's Def gave up 1 TD to GaTech, even with 2 fumbles, 5 punts, and 2 Kickoffs, and 3 drives that started on with GT already in ND territory. Bears mentioning.

4) Mich scored a whopping 7 pts on Oregon at home. No FGs. 4 turnovers. 13 posessions and 1 scoring drive on a Def that gave up 27 pts and *545* yards of offense at home the prior week. Oregon does not remotely have PSU's Def. Houston got 6.4ypc on the ground, Mich got a whopping 3.3, or 50% worse. At home. With Mike Hart.
Houston also outpassed Mich, no surprise there I guess.

More importantly, if this is such a great bet without Henne, why the line move from 10 to 7?

The total I'm not certain of anything except someone will score, guaranteed, even if it's just a pick6 or punt return. {guarantee includes Overtime[s]}

[sanmarcosrun1]

The line moved because the new QB is an unknown factor for the game. Books have trouble figuring out how to move lines when this occurs in college football. He is a True freshman QB (kind of as he has been there since Jan. '07 to take part in all spring practices). No one comments on it because no one knows its affect on the game simple as that.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
The line moved because the new QB is an unknown factor for the game....No one comments on it because no one knows its affect on the game simple as that.

[/ QUOTE ]

But people are saying the Over is an easy bet, they should have an evaluation of the 'unknown factor.' All I'm saying.

[iggymcfly]

One line I really like the look of that I'm going to wait until close to kickoff on is the Louisville/Kentucky under. I know L'ville's defense looked terrible last week, but 77 is an insanely high total. Last year, Louisville only reached that mark in 2 of their 13 games and Kentucky reached it in 3 of 13 and that's with them playing to that total against each other.

Really, the Louisville defense didn't lose that much coming into this season (6 of 11 starters returning, Steele thought they'd be better at every position group) and I think the MTSU game was more of a case of getting sloppy against a mediocre opponent than it was not having the skill to keep up. Kentucky's got 8 starters back on D and should improve enough to at least slow down the Cardinals' O. I'd still expect Louisville to win a relatively high-scoring game, but more along the lines of 38-28 than 48-38.

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The line moved because the new QB is an unknown factor for the game....No one comments on it because no one knows its affect on the game simple as that.

[/ QUOTE ]

But people are saying the Over is an easy bet, they should have an evaluation of the 'unknown factor.' All I'm saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

With Henne, I would like the Over A LOT. Without him I don't think the unknown factor takes the median total down to 42. I just think it's off. I didn't say it was an easy bet, just a bet.

[Alzee]

I think the under is a safe bet on the ND MI game

1) Charlie is playing it very safe this year, knowing that Clausen is coming off a injury he's not throwing the ball downfield so I don't expect any deep threat

2) ND definately doesn't have anyone with break-away speed (except Zibby on punt returns, expect him to score 1 touchdown)

3) Henne factor (or lack of Henne factor), Hart will be forced to workhorse even more than usual, ND will be somewhat successful on the run stoppage (I look for Hart to break 1 or 2 for TD)

Prediction ND 17 MI 20

[MicroBob]

I know you guys love reading my square picks.

Here's what I'm on so far:

ECU +1
TCU -8
NC -3
CONN -29
LOU -7
WV -16
ND +8


The previous discussion and article on Miami, Ohio's injuries has me kind of scared on that game. I still think there might be some value in +9 but not nearly as dramatically as I thought before.
On their home-turf with a big crowd I expect they can keep the game close but with those injuries it would not surprise me at all if UC were able to turn it on and run-away on some big plays.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The line moved because the new QB is an unknown factor for the game....No one comments on it because no one knows its affect on the game simple as that.

[/ QUOTE ]

But people are saying the Over is an easy bet, they should have an evaluation of the 'unknown factor.' All I'm saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

With Henne, I would like the Over A LOT. Without him I don't think the unknown factor takes the median total down to 42. I just think it's off. I didn't say it was an easy bet, just a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, relax, I specifically did not say *you* did, but plenty of people are, in fact, saying that. I'm trying to understand why.

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The line moved because the new QB is an unknown factor for the game....No one comments on it because no one knows its affect on the game simple as that.

[/ QUOTE ]

But people are saying the Over is an easy bet, they should have an evaluation of the 'unknown factor.' All I'm saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

With Henne, I would like the Over A LOT. Without him I don't think the unknown factor takes the median total down to 42. I just think it's off. I didn't say it was an easy bet, just a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, relax, I specifically did not say *you* did, but plenty of people are, in fact, saying that. I'm trying to understand why.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just answering your question. I think I'm the only one picking the over in this thread.

[iggymcfly]

Now on:
Ohio State at Washington +4 (Risk 1.5u to win 1.44u)

Also added a unit on Louisville at -6.5 (-103)