NL50: AA vs c/r on flop, drawy board

[Keyser112]

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I'm dumping the flop and not feeling too bad about it.

[/ QUOTE ]I tend to agree with this. I'm either felting or folding this flop and I'm folding a lot of the time.

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[CalledDownLight]

I would shove the flop. I have similar stats to you and I'm usually ahead if we get it in here.

[CazicT]

Don't forget, the villian had the hero covered, this is actually what he was doing...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Turn: ($50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $45.10 (All-In), Hero ?


To me, I don't think it's imossible that the villian does this with AQ. It's hard to know for sure without knowing the villian, but it's not at all far fetched for the villian to call PF with AQ on the button, then when he get's TPTK on the flop and the hero makes a "continuation bet" that he would raise the hero (4 players saw flop, he really wants to thin the field). Then when the hero calls and checks a blank turn the villian thinks, dang, no bet, he must be on a FD, I better put him all-in.

Of course this story works equally well for sets which is the problem. There are 6 AQ combos, and 6 set combos (excluding QQ that has 3 more, but there is also SOME chance that he has something completly different like a bluff or semi-bluff). To me this turn is a call given pot odds.

Now as for folding the flop, are you guys really folding this flop or are you letting the results sway you? I mean, you have to believe the villian is a real nut-peddlar to just assume that he can only raise with a hand that beats you. It just seems real weak. Sure it's a tough spot, but I can't imagine just dumping when he could easily have AQ or even be bluffing.

The hero is a bit of a victim here because he had a tough SPR OOP and had no real way of knowing preflop this would occur. I don't think I can fault his play at all.

my $0.02

[speedyg]

I call the turn as well (in most cases). This hand boils down to the likelihood villian holds AQ. Two questions in my mind are "Has villian adjusted to my somewhat loose pf play?" and "How does he perceive me continuation bet wise?" If the answers are YES and aggressive, I'm no longer considering a fold to the flop raise or the turn allin.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget, the villian had the hero covered, this is actually what he was doing...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Turn: ($50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $45.10 (All-In), Hero ?


To me, I don't think it's imossible that the villian does this with AQ. It's hard to know for sure without knowing the villian, but it's not at all far fetched for the villian to call PF with AQ on the button, then when he get's TPTK on the flop and the hero makes a "continuation bet" that he would raise the hero (4 players saw flop, he really wants to thin the field). Then when the hero calls and checks a blank turn the villian thinks, dang, no bet, he must be on a FD, I better put him all-in.

Of course this story works equally well for sets which is the problem. There are 6 AQ combos, and 6 set combos (excluding QQ that has 3 more, but there is also SOME chance that he has something completly different like a bluff or semi-bluff). To me this turn is a call given pot odds.

Now as for folding the flop, are you guys really folding this flop or are you letting the results sway you? I mean, you have to believe the villian is a real nut-peddlar to just assume that he can only raise with a hand that beats you. It just seems real weak. Sure it's a tough spot, but I can't imagine just dumping when he could easily have AQ or even be bluffing.

The hero is a bit of a victim here because he had a tough SPR OOP and had no real way of knowing preflop this would occur. I don't think I can fault his play at all.

my $0.02

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A lot of good points here.

I don't think it is impossible for AQ to play this way. I personally wouldn't have played it this way but it certainly makes sense.

On this flop we are looking at sets, two-pairs, TP's, and draws. He isn't likely bluffing. Taking a look at his AF makes me feel that it is more likely that he has a strong hand than a draw. I would guess he would call this flop with a draw and maybe even TP so that is why I think the raise says a lot about his hand. I am not saying he is never doing this with a draw, I am just saying that I don't know that he is doing this often enough to call the flop and call the turn.

I think if you give him a range of AQ/KQ/SC's that have draws/sets and then discount the SC part with him only having say a 25% change of playing those that way and maybe he will only play AQ/KQ this way 50% of the time(this way meaning raising the flop) you could get a reasonable idea of your equity. I'll try to work it out later if I can get a free moment.