22+2$ FT - awkward bubble spot

sence25 · #1 09-10-2007, 08:14 PM

This is a fold, right?
http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?p...p;hand=1459081

Rusty Nails · #2 09-10-2007, 09:00 PM

Any reads? It becomes marginal if villian is raising around top 35%.

sence25 · #3 09-10-2007, 09:03 PM

he played kinda aggressive, but i think 35% is too loose utg.
i think i don't have much foldequity here and i would really really really hate a flip with a shorty around.
TT is a monster 4handed on the other hand.

Nivek24 · #4 09-10-2007, 11:29 PM

Well, one thing you know is that it is highly unlikely your opponent will fold here with t5,800 in the pot and only about 2,500 to call he is getting over 2-to-1, and any hand that could make a raise in his position can make a call her.
If this was a winner take all tourny it would be an easy all in, but it's not. I don't know your exact equity in this tourny but I am almost certain that folding is the mathematically correct play. I come to this conclusion just by considering the facts. (1) a push will be called almost for certain, (2) You're most likely in a race. (3) You're in no hurry to make a move here. The pressure is on Keizo at this point in the tourny, not you.

An interesting play in this spot would be the stop 'n go. Just calling and then pushing in on the flop regardless of what comes. I don't know if that would be a good play, but it could be. Depends on your opponent.
Notice tho that calling creates a pot of 3,250 and you would have 2,500 left after the 1000 call to bet on the flop. Perhaps calling and then pushing in on all but the worst flops (such as AcKcJc) would be a good move.
I don't know for certain, but folding here and leaving the pressure on the short stack seems by far better than getting involved in this hand. To me at least.

vers · #5 09-11-2007, 01:32 AM

I shove it in here but that's only b/c I have an absolute ton of hands on futile. Way ahead of his range and Keizo is not going to just let himself get blinded out. Too good a spot to pass up I think. I think you are way ahead enough of the time to make this a repush.

BTW, you probably shouldn't have joined this sng to begin with b/c keizo and futile are both solid players. I played the 22s for long enough to know that if you table select, your ROI skyrockets. Also, if possible, don't play during the day (US TIME). My ROI in July/August was 11% between 6-12 (1000 sng sample) but only 0.5% (1000 sng sample) between Noon and 6.

skates · #6 09-11-2007, 01:35 AM

Stop and go is bad here. I fold this. However, it has to be noted that villain losing the hand knocks him to 1800 right before blinds hit him, so the FE is not zero. If he's raising every hand, I could see an argument for a shove here depending on what we know about the opponent (is he shoving ATC aware of bubble phenomenon? and if so, is he gonna lay his 78 down?).

Absent any of this, easy fold.

vers · #7 09-11-2007, 01:46 AM

he's hyper aggro and may fold to a shove knowing that poster is not reshoving weak IMHO. Poster probably doesn't have a database as big as mine tho for the 22s lolz.

sence25 · #8 09-11-2007, 06:48 AM

hero doesn't have a database up to now cause he recently played on a mac computer, which doesn't support pokertracker/pokerace.
hero kicks ass against those stupid donks anyway.

vers, i prolly should have selected tables, but i thought i still have a +roi whoever is playing(at 22s obv) and so waiting would be just a waste of time.