Live 1/2NL playing A9 suited on the button

[Fiepoto]

This is my first Full Ring Forum Post.

This question is based on a hand I recently played in Atlantic city at a 1/2 NL table.

Full table: 10 players, medium stack size ~$200. I have apprx $300.

I pick up A9 suited on the button. A strong TAG with approx $140 raises to $17 from 2nd position. In two hours I have only seen this player raise preflop with AQ-AK, JJ-AA. Further, this player makes very good bets against draws (always at least 2/3 the pot, when it is less than this, he has the nut draw or the obvious draws beat) he may or may not be c-betting. He becomes very cautious once a draw hits.

So, here I think that I must connect my preflop decision with what will happen post-flop. Barring a 1-3% chance of a perfect flop (two pair, trip 9s, or all of my suite) the best I can hope for is a 9 out nut flush draw after the flop. So obviously if everyone folds around to me in late position, I'm going to fold because he's not going to give me pot odds and the implied odds probably aren't there.

So my question is this: If several passive players come along for the ride in front of me, can I call this profitably? How should I go about calculating this?

[KurtSF]

If no one calls this is obviously a fold. Villain has your hand beat, possible dominated, and doesn't pay of when draws hit.

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If several passive players come along for the ride in front of me, can I call this profitably?

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This is actually pretty unlikely. You hand has no connectedness, has some high card value, and is suited. The more people that enter the pot the less valuable the high card nature of your hand gets, meaning you are drawing to the flush only, and the more likely you are to be dominated. With such a big raise where you would have to commit 10% of your stack preflop, its unlikely any number of callers would make this hand a good idea to play.

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How should I go about calculating this?

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One of the first things you should think about is the blinds. If you have ever seen either one of them 3-bet preflop, fold, no matter how many callers come along.

But in general you should think in terms of implied odds (IO). How likely is it that you will hit the nut flush and be able to get another opponent to put their stack in the middle.

I'm going to super super simplify multiple streets of play from multiple players. Your plan is to shove a FD on the flop, and fold everything else. IFF you can guarantee action on your shove:

6% of the time you will win a big pot, lets say ~$500 (value +$300).
12% of the time you will miss your draw and lose your entire $200 stack (value -$200).
82% of the time you will miss the flop and check/fold (val;ue -$17).

So the value of your call if you are guaranteed action when you get the FD is:

.06 * 300 - .12 * 200 - .82 * 17 = -$20

So basically, you need to be in a position to guarantee have MULTIPLE callers when you flop the nuts or nut draw to make this call profitable. You need A LOT of droolers in the game. So basically, if there are any half-decent players other than the TAG, just fold.

$0.02

[seki]

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In two hours I have only seen this player raise preflop with AQ-AK, JJ-AA.

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If I got two of those hands in 2h of live FR play, I'd consider myself on a heater.

[canvasbck]

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In two hours I have only seen this player raise preflop with AQ-AK, JJ-AA.

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I stopped reading shortly after this.....fold. This player isn't paying you off if you hit the flush.

[AlexB182]

Just muck it, you never ever get the right odds to make this call +EV.
BTW: I would rather think about calling here with something like 65s or 98s than with A9s, cause this is such a one way hand...

[JulioYalil]

fold

[Fiepoto]

Thanks for all the comments guys. I was pretty sure this was a fold, no matter how many limpers came along, but I just wanted to reconfirm and see if anyone could come up with a reason to call.