NL25 QQ PF v nit and drooler behind

[MaltbyStu]

UTG is 7/5 after 40 hands, I know 40 hands is a small sample but if I put UTG on JJ+,AK+ I'm actually behind here and it's one of the few times I don't like an insta raise.
Also, I know for a fact that BB will call a raise and price in UTG regardless.

Is this a good time for a call with QQ or is it a sin?

Stu

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($13.75)
Hero ($27.50)
Button ($26)
SB ($32.60)
BB ($24.25)
UTG ($25.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">[i]1 fold.

Hero?

[Nick C]

If BB is coming along with anything, then you should have an equity edge even if UTG's range really is just AA-JJ and AK, but there are problems. We don't really know how to interpret a 4-bet from UTG if it comes, and also we'd rather not build a big pot if we are up against AA or KK.

Meanwhile, if an A, K or Q doesn't flop and UTG has AA-KK, we're going to lose a lot of money anyway. But I think just calling is okay here.

[MaltbyStu]

[ QUOTE ]
If BB is coming along with anything, then you should have an equity edge even if UTG's range really is just AA-JJ and AK, but there are problems. We don't really know how to interpret a 4-bet from UTG if it comes, and also we'd rather not build a big pot if we are up against AA or KK.

Meanwhile, if an A, K or Q doesn't flop and UTG has AA-KK, we're going to lose a lot of money anyway. But I think just calling is okay here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick,

I noticed in stove that when I introduce the 65% caller into the equation that my equity does in fact increase. Thing is, I can not figure out why and obv. need to understand this concept? Could you explain why my equity increases?

Thanks,

Stu

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If BB is coming along with anything, then you should have an equity edge even if UTG's range really is just AA-JJ and AK, but there are problems. We don't really know how to interpret a 4-bet from UTG if it comes, and also we'd rather not build a big pot if we are up against AA or KK.

Meanwhile, if an A, K or Q doesn't flop and UTG has AA-KK, we're going to lose a lot of money anyway. But I think just calling is okay here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick,

I noticed in stove that when I introduce the 65% caller into the equation that my equity does in fact increase. Thing is, I can not figure out why and obv. need to understand this concept? Could you explain why my equity increases?

Thanks,

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]

If, say, you have QQ and UTG has AK and BB has 95s, then your chances of actually winning the hand go down if BB comes along, but you and UTG are sharing some portion of BB's preflop investment, since he will rarely win the hand. So you'd probably want to 3-bet if you knew that's what everyone held and BB was going to play regardless.

That's what I was getting at, in any case.

A problem you have in the hand, though, is that UTG (if his range is really AA-JJ, AK) has 12 combos in his range that have you crushed preflop (AA-KK), has 6 combos that you have crushed (JJ), has 1 combo you're tied with (QQ), and has 16 combos that will outflop you about 1/3 of the time (AK). As a result, you're only about a coinflip to be ahead of him on the flop, he (probably) won't go away if he has AK anyway, and I think a good case can be made for waiting and seeing what the flop brings. You do win less this way when AK is what he has, it's true, but you're not a favorite versus his suspected preflop range. It's really only the potential for BB to come along anyway that makes me even tempted to 3-bet.

[ajmargarine]

40 hands is nothing. 3b. If BB comes along, UTG will likely 4b his AA/KK and you can fold.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
40 hands is nothing. 3b. If BB comes along, UTG will likely 4b his AA/KK and you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that 40 hands gives us only a sketchy read, but 7/5 is striking enough that I think we do have a fair indication that Villain is tight and quite possibly very tight.

I think that the potential 4-bet is actually our biggest problem, since UTG might decide to go ahead and do that with AK after BB comes along. Or maybe he's not the type of player to even consider that, but we don't know that to be the case since our read is, after all, rather sketchy.

[BigCummins]

omg 3 bet