Can I get away from this on the turn?

[spikeanut]

First off, let me say I have not been on this table for too long. Then this hand comes up.

PokerStars $0.25/$0.50 No-Limit Hold'em - 9 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

CO: $13.60
Button: $13.50
SB: $22.95
BB: $52.45
UTG: $16.95
UTG+1: $53.50
UTG+2: $48.10
MP1: $40.80
MP2: $62.65

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, [color=#FF0000]Hero raises to $2</font>, MP2 calls $2, CO folds, Button calls $2, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](4 players)</font>
UTG checks, [color=#FF0000]Hero bets $4.50</font>, [color=#FF0000]MP2 raises to $9</font>, Button folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $4.50.

Turn: ($26.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
Hero checks, [color=#FF0000]MP2 bets $9.50</font>, Hero calls $9.50.

River: ($45.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#FF0000]Hero bets $20.30 (all in)</font>, MP2 calls $20.30.

Final Pot: $86.35

The only reason I push on the river is I figure the 8's and 7's pairing up helped me, as I had put him on a set with the min raise, but I was willing to gamble that he did not have a four of a kind. Is that corrupt logic there?

[gregorio]

I see a few problems with your logic.

(When you say you put him on a set on the flop, are you discounting KK--just wondering because it doesn't sound like you include KK in his range (maybe you think he would 3-bet it PF) by the rest of your description of the hand?)


So you eliminate 88 from his range when the case 8 come because you are willing to gamble that he doesn't have quads. But that leaves him with a set of 7s that just filled up, so why are you calling the turn? He has you crushed.

Then when the case 7 comes on the river, you eliminate 77 from his range because you are willing to gamble that he doesn't have quads. So now you have elimiated the entire range you had him on (unless KK was one of the sets you had in his range on the flop, in which case you are crushed). Now you have no range of hands for him, and you push?

Having eliminated 77 and 88, you need to figure out some range of hands for him. Maybe you think,

a) he could have a king, and made TP with a good kicker on the flop, and raised/bet turn because he thought his K was good

b) he was bluffing the flop (min raise bluff is donkish, but maybe he wanted to try to bluff cheap and your flop bet is so small he thought he could get you off your hand) and then when the bluff there didn't work, he fired another barrel on the turn

c) he was semi-bluffing flop and turn with 9T or 56

d) ok, he didn't have a set on the flop, but maybe he flopped a big hand like 2pr with 78 or K7-8s

etc. But you have to have some sort of idea of a range for him before you push the river.

Regardless of the range you put him on, the river push doesn't make sense because the only hands he calls with are hands that beat you. He is only calling here with a boat or quads (unless you have a read that he is a huge donk who would call hoping you had Ax and he was ahead with his Kx or chopping with another Ax, but I think that is pretty remote). So if he has a boat or quads, obviously you don't want to push here.

If you are pretty sure he doesn't have a boat or quads, then you don't push here because you are only folding a worse hand. If you think you have the best hand, then check the river and let him fire a third barrel. That is the only way you get any more value out of a worse hand.

So I think the biggest problem with your logic isn't that you are willing to gamble that he doesn't have quads, but that once you decide this, you need to come up with some sort of range for him, and if you want to gamble that you are ahead, then the way to do that is to check to induce a bluff and then call, rather than pushing the river.

[djshawk]

I think your bet sizes preflop and on the flop are a bit small too. Preflop I like $2.5 here though $2 isn't terrible. On that flop though, with 3 other people you need to bet more - $7.50-$8. If one person calls you the next person gets 4/1 and the 3rd person 5/1 which is just asking for trouble. You want hands like 56/9T to draw but you don't want to price them in which is just about what you are doing.

I think the flop bet also looks weak (whiffed JJ/QQ?) so when you check the turn I'm not surprised he takes up the betting. His bet looks more like a stab to take it down than a bet for value to so I'd be inclined to push over the top of him - he's got a king here more often than an 8.