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Old 09-08-2007, 11:08 PM
4CardStraight 4CardStraight is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Twin Cities, MN
Posts: 560
Default Re: FullTilt $26 $28k Guaranteed Final Table (5 left).

I have been asked many times for the ones I use, but I simply refuse to give them out, its too much work. But this will get you close and get you started.

Get NLH:TAP by sklansky. Look at the back for the SC (Sklansky Chubakov?) numbers table.

Make 3 charts:
20BB, 10BB, 5BB For each have a column for 9 players
Leave the ninth column blank since we dont open push BB. (You may want to create some sort of default call chart there)
20BB: SC 320UTG, 280, 240, 200, 160, 120(CO), 80(B), 40SB
10BB: SC 160,140,120,100,80,60,40,20SB
5BB: SC 80,70,60,50,40,30,20,10

Then, put the hands with those SC numbers or greater in each column. This will get you 90% of the way to what you need.

Its not quite perfect... There are some minor problems with it, that I will let you discover on your own, but you will clearly see just how tight you need to be open pushing in the early positions with 12-20BB, and you will see just how wide you can push from the button with short stacks. I recommend doing furhter Structural Hand Analysis on them as well, by taking a hand, assigning an average calling range behind you, calculating your net chance to steal the blinds (like if 9% of hands call you and theres 3 opp left to act, then we go (100 - hand range) = .91 ^ 3 = 75% chance to steal, 25% of the time were called with a top 9% hand and look at our equity vs that range using stove. I did it for nearly every hand just on the line above and below the line, and found a few spots where this method wasnt perfect.


Some of the problems...

This assumes we only get called in one place. Thats not a big deal since multiways are really quite rare comparatively like if a top 10% hand calls us, then for us to get called twice is under 1% of the time. Secondly it doesnt matter much cause in three way pots if you use RANGES, then everyone is really quite close in equity

It also doesnt account for what happens when people call us too loosely, which certainly happens, and usually increases our ability to push, but we still dont push much wider, since really its adding equity to the hands in the top of our range more than the bottom

It also doesnt account for payout structures, as I mention in this post tho ICM is not perfect, we need to adjust on the fly. If we are on a bubble we want to be first in more often than not, if we are in the final few, we may want to play tighter than our charts to avoid confrontations, but if all 4 are playing tight, then we actually want to be looser than our charts... it gets complicated.

It also assumes nearly clairvoyent opponents. I think thats fine, this is the hands at a minimum I would push instead of fold given my stack size, if folded to me.

Finally the pairs are hard to calculate exactly, since its tough to say what "calls us perfectly" means.. does that include AKs? AKo? any overs to our pairs? certainly with say 15BB or more we get more equity in other ways with pairs, possibly limping, possibly set mining, possibly open pushing even if the charts say not to simply because the odds are best that we get called by overs and we have overlay with the blinds.

These numbers also rely very heavily on high card strength since they assume head to head vs random hand confrontations, and one adjustment I have made is increasing the relative strength of some of the high card suited cards.

I primarily use them simply as a good guideline. If a hand is +cEV to push in a vacuum using the charts from my table, given my stack size, I sure as heck wont be folding it. coincidently or not, the 20BB push chart coincides nicely with my deep stack opening hand chart as well :>, although I certainly also open more Suited Connectors

And of course, ANTES, which not only am *I* chronically forgetting in certain post threads, but *POSTERS* are chronically forgetting to note in their threads, and its not trivial :>.


HTH

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