i have a draw, 25/50 nl live--opinions on all streets welcome

[AP81]

Looks like a fold given we need 38% equity to call this.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18 games 0.005 secs 3,600 games/sec

Board: 8h 7h 6d Qc 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.778% 27.78% 00.00% 5 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 72.222% 72.22% 00.00% 13 0.00 { AhKh, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, KhJh, Kh9h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Jh9h, 9h6h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h }

I don't know how loose he is, but this seems like all the reasonable flushes he can have here. I suppose you could throw in some tiny flushes but it makes no sense for him to overbet shove 300bbs with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] By the same logic all those baby flushes I put in his range should be removed but they are at least far more likely holdings for villain to raise preflop and I'm sure some people wouldn't agree to remove them.

Villain is good according to Gaucho. The fact is given the board and our hand there are NOT many lower flushes for villain to have that make any sense. The 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are all in play, but the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are not. When he has something like a 6 high flush why the hell would he shove instead of making a normal value bet anyways? I think we can all agree at the very least that he is going to overbet shove an ace or king high flush given the action way more often than a baby flush, if he is good.

[BobboFitos]

i think you played it fine, get it in now

[BobboFitos]

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i need more information before i can comment on the hand.

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[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[BobboFitos]

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Isnt he expecting you to raise a flushdraw on the flop most of the time this deep?

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sure, some of the time, but raising a flush draw this deep is often asking to get pushed off my hand b/c if he reraises i can't really call (or shove).

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people very rarely have the potential to put this information to work. they have to be in an elite group to notice you ALWAYS raise flush draws on these boards when deep, and in turn apply that to 3bet bluff. i would never worry about this.

[cts]

ya bobbo but sometimes they have a real hand...


as for this hand, of course call the river, and I like you you played the rest of it. this is just getting old every hand is i call call call show no sign of strength, river the second nuts and he goes allin what do i do?

if i raise the flop it's b/c im gonna gamble and get the rest in, not fold to a 3-bet

[BobboFitos]

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ya bobbo but sometimes they have a real hand...

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yeah you're obviously right, but i mean not wanting to raise bc you think they will 3bet bluff you off your hand is (imo) real bad thinking.

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if i raise the flop it's b/c im gonna gamble and get the rest in, not fold to a 3-bet

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me too, and tbh, i sorta welcome a bluff 3bet so we can shove or running it with our pair outs live as well would be wondrous

[HedonismBot]

Looks like the king high flush

[koffeliane]

I don't think villain is bluffing here too often(given history etc.), so isn't this more of a question of what villain perceives as OPs calling range? Then do the math.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like a fold given we need 38% equity to call this.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18 games 0.005 secs 3,600 games/sec

Board: 8h 7h 6d Qc 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.778% 27.78% 00.00% 5 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 72.222% 72.22% 00.00% 13 0.00 { AhKh, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, KhJh, Kh9h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Jh9h, 9h6h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h }

I don't know how loose he is, but this seems like all the reasonable flushes he can have here. I suppose you could throw in some tiny flushes but it makes no sense for him to overbet shove 300bbs with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] By the same logic all those baby flushes I put in his range should be removed but they are at least far more likely holdings for villain to raise preflop and I'm sure some people wouldn't agree to remove them.

Villain is good according to Gaucho. The fact is given the board and our hand there are NOT many lower flushes for villain to have that make any sense. The 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are all in play, but the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are not. When he has something like a 6 high flush why the hell would he shove instead of making a normal value bet anyways? I think we can all agree at the very least that he is going to overbet shove an ace or king high flush given the action way more often than a baby flush, if he is good.

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this is the best answer i have seen...thanks for posting this.

cts: if i raise the flop, i'd MUCH prefer to get it in and gamble, but tbh getting it in with a flush draw that could be dominated or running it v. a set/two pair/straight isn't all the great for 400bbs. If we get it in, I'm almost never going to be ahead, obviously, so it would be some super meta game play and i'm not all that sure that it's clear i need to do this.

my plan when the river hearted up was that I would SNAP shove over a 7-8k bet, or alue bet around 8k if checked to. however, i think the river shove is the only aspect that might make this hand foldable.

when i OP'd, i didn't really think anyone here would say the river was a fold (given that this is 2p2, obv.) so I was surprised that people even suggested it. However, based on my physical read that he was not bluffing, and the fact that it really wouldn't make sense for him to value bet a set like this given that i look so much like I'm on a flush draw, this river just might be foldable.

in the future though, i am strongly going to consider raising this flop, it's possible i'll get a free river. i agree with what krantz said that getting raised shouldn't be too much of a concern. however, in this case given that i've seen the villain be v. passive in spots when he is the pfr and gets called by >3 people, I figured he might have a hand that he could go with, meaning getting raised off my draw would be more of a concern that might otherwise be the case v. a different villain who c-bet into 3 or more people indiscriminately.

lots of great responses on this thread. thanks guys.

dlpnyc21

ps: does anyone ever overbet shove the turn here (or just raise it?). will he fold anything after he bets 3k? i was talking with another hsnl player and he said he would just stick it in and hope to fold out overpairs some of the time and sometimes get it in ahead v. a pair+fd/sd type hand when i have the bigger pair....

[Butcho22]

I just wanted to say that I usually can't stand reading live hand reports, but this one was very well written and I enjoyed it a great deal. Thx.