FullTilt $26 $28k Guaranteed Final Table (5 left).

nickabourisk · #1 09-08-2007, 03:09 PM

Okay, so this is my first post in MTT. I just started playing MTTs less than two months ago and I'm just in love with them. I've final-tabled four $26 tourneys so far (one was a MTT SNG) and I want to know how to play at the final table (placed 1, 2, 4, 5). I play a fairly aggressive gave with steals and resteals but I'm wondering how this should change when you get to the final table (in general for these $26 tourneys, obviously "it depends"). At the final table, the blinds and antes are very high so stealing them increases your stack a huge amount and moving up one place in payout now changes by a much larger margin. Anyway, I would like to know what do in the situation below.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t10000/t20000
(Ante: t2500)
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t199232
CO: t243435
Button: t514220
SB: t220031
BB: t612582

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero ???

Here is some player info:

CO: tightish but capable of making resteals

BTN: tightish but capable of making resteals as well. Also just won a bunch of chips and has become more aggressive (with steals).

SB: was a huge chipleader for the best part of the later stages of the tournament until he doubled me up (to become chipleader) in the hand below. He said that he didn't think I had anything in that hand. He might be calling me with a larger range (to get his revenge).

BB: tight-aggressive solid player

My Image: Aggressive (stealing and restealing) at the final table but normally had the goods at showdown. The table before this final table, I had a tight-aggressive image (except for shoving with stuff like Q3s OTB as a short stack).

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t6000/t12000
(Ante: t1500)
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t842340
UTG+1: t123595
CO: t144101
Hero: t288435
SB: t122169
BB: t268860

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG raises to t48000, 2 folds, Hero calls t48000 (pot was t75000), 2 folds.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t123000, 2 players)
UTG bets t12000, Hero raises to t36000, UTG calls t24000 (pot was t171000).

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t195000, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t70000, UTG calls t70000 (pot was t265000).

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t335000, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero is all-in t132935, UTG calls t132935 (pot was t467935).

Results:
Final pot: t600870
Hero showed 5d 5h
UTG mucks Kc Qc

I called here with 55 with the plan of taking it down postflop (since he'd been raising most hands preflop and would have to give me some credit). I guess this should probably be a shove PF right?

4CardStraight · #2 09-08-2007, 05:20 PM

Hand 1:

This is as boarderline as it gets. Its actually very thinly negative EV to push and turn it face up. Its +EV to push A9o, and its +EV to push A8s... Its very thinly -ev... How thin? Well... A9o HAS to call you in order for this to be negative. Given the chip stacks at the table, I think this is a very reasonable open push. I probably open push here, especially since every description of every player you list uses the word "tight". You can justify open raising to 50k and folding to a push, if you think no one will likely play back at you, but you do say your image has been slightly looser, and say that several behind might potentially resteal.

I think its Push > Fold > Raise3x but fold to shove.

I have no problem with open folding this here, and if my opponents are experts with end game, I fold.

Hand 2 is a fold preflop. Were not getting set odds. A "plan" of taking it away post flop is not how I generally play end game, stacks are too thin generally to blow people off any pair he hits bigger than a 5. Im one in eight to flop a set and only getting one in 5 for implied odds. I likely have to fold if I am bet at and the board is overs, and I could well be folding the best hand. Its just not a hand that plays super well post flop, and I really dont think oppenent ever folds a bigger pair than my fives.

4Card

nickabourisk · #3 09-08-2007, 09:59 PM

Thanks for the reply. I have a few questions/comments:

1) how are you calculating the EV of these hands? Are you creating the structure of this tourney and putting it into SNGPT or some similar program? If so, what are you using as their calling ranges.

2) if I raise to 3x the big blind or so, I think I'm getting someone to resteal or a call quite often. Also, this is a huge amount of my stack (as I have less than 10 BB total). If I raise to 60k (3BB) with 42.5k in the pot and leave myself with 140k and someone shoves then I'm getting 200k+60k+42.5k = 302.5k (obv. this will be slightly less if one of the blinds shoves). So let's just say for arguments sake that there is 280k and it's 140k to call. I'm getting 2:1. Even if I pick the narrow range of {Any Pair, Any better Ace}, we have 32.177% equity (by PokerStove) and I think restealing ranges will very often be much wider than this (increasing our equity) so we are getting better than 2:1 odds against. So I think if I raise to 3BB, I should be calling a shove (is this logic flawed?).

3) RE: hand 2. I agree that my "plan" to take it postflop doesn't really work with these stack sizes (except that I thought at this point, I would probably get some credit because I'm pretty sure I had a tight image at this point). However, why shouldn't I resteal-shove against someone who's probably raising 50-60% of his range? Even if I assume that he's raising {Any Pair, Any Broadway}=17.9% of hands, I have 46.7% equity. If I steal here, I get the blinds (unless one of the blinds calls), antes, and his raise. His range is definitely way wider than this, however. So, should this not be an instashove?

Thegunshow · #4 09-08-2007, 10:10 PM

hand 1: Pushbot chart says +EV push so I'm curious how 4card is calculating this.

Hand 2: definitely not deep enough to call raise with hopes of taking it postflop. If you're happy with a race, ship it in and hope he's raising and calling with overs.

4CardStraight · #5 09-08-2007, 10:16 PM

For the EV, well, ICM isnt exactly a perfect science. First off, most all players play far too tight. It generally doesnt account for our inherent greater ability than our opponents, and finally there is no real way to calculate the exact chances of how often folding yields a higher pay scale.

So I use a flat calculation of Chip EV. I made a chart derived from a combination of SC numbers (NLH, Sklansky), Jam or Fold tables (MOP, ankenman and chen), and from my own SHAL (structural hand analysis from harrington). For any given hand and stack size and position we can calculate wether it is +cEV by pushing and turning our hands face up. We can see an exact range that our opponents call with, calculate that as a percentage, use 1.0 - that X^Y num of opponents remaining to calculate how often we steal the blinds, and then compare that to our equity in the pot against that range. If you do this for this hand, you will see it is slighlty -cEV if our opponents are clairvoyent.

Now, how can this be accurate if we are in a tournament, when we should use ICM:
1: ICM generally shows that +cEV is indeed +$EV. they diverge, to be sure, at the bubble, at large pay jumps, etc, but ... IF all stack sizes are pretty similar, and pay scale is relatively linear, then generally +CEV roughly equals +$EV.

2: Our opponents are not clairvoyent, they mostly play too tight behind a push. How much too tight? Well they generally will fold at least 10% too many hands... OR... they might call too loose, and for each hand that calls us too loosely, we GAIN in +cEV and +$EV, mostly.

and

3: Our chips should have something like a 5-10% premium due to our natural edge in the game vs our opponents, and also because chips are not cash, incremental chips matter less than the ones in our stack.

Note that 2 and 3 roughly cancel each other out.

OK so raising to entice a resteal, that we then call. I think ICM here actually matters more than for open pushing. Pot odds say were getting about 2 to 1 on a call, but we set that up. Were definitely going all in, and probably to a range that even if we include some resteals, we arent greater than 50/50 to win. If mostly players are tight behind we might really be pretty crushed. This is the type of hand that I would really rather not have to see a showdown with. I personally would like to maximize my fold equity and at the same time, provide for the natural strength of my high cards, and open push.

In hand 2, if you think they are raising 50-60% of their range, and only calling with a hand better than top 20% then its a no brainer to resteal. My issue is with the "call" since a lot of our value comes where our pair is best, but thats the hardest to play post flop, where we dont improve. Felting behind the raise is perfectly acceptable if we think he is raising that wide. I simply did not catch in OP that he was raising as wide as this. If he is a normal raiser from UTG 6handed (something like 12%), this is a muck.

HTH

4Card

4CardStraight · #6 09-08-2007, 10:23 PM

Doh, in hand 1 I missed the Antes: My pushbot calculations show that for 10BB with no ante, that A9o and A8s are +EV pushes, but that A8o is slightly negative if opp are clairvoyent, clearly with ANTES its +EV anyway... YOU will note that I did advise to push, correctly... even if the math says its super close to the line but negative we still might push because our opponents are not perfect, they generally play too tight.

4Card

Tankado · #7 09-08-2007, 10:43 PM

this chart you mention is something I'm looking for for the last 3 months. I have a vague idea now, how it's made but don't own MOP yet and not sure I really got it. Is there a better explanation already written down somewhere?

Besides, don't know how often you get to hear this, but your answers are awesome. Love reading your replies.

4CardStraight · #8 09-08-2007, 11:08 PM

I have been asked many times for the ones I use, but I simply refuse to give them out, its too much work. But this will get you close and get you started.

Get NLH:TAP by sklansky. Look at the back for the SC (Sklansky Chubakov?) numbers table.

Make 3 charts:
20BB, 10BB, 5BB For each have a column for 9 players
Leave the ninth column blank since we dont open push BB. (You may want to create some sort of default call chart there)
20BB: SC 320UTG, 280, 240, 200, 160, 120(CO), 80(B), 40SB
10BB: SC 160,140,120,100,80,60,40,20SB
5BB: SC 80,70,60,50,40,30,20,10

Then, put the hands with those SC numbers or greater in each column. This will get you 90% of the way to what you need.

Its not quite perfect... There are some minor problems with it, that I will let you discover on your own, but you will clearly see just how tight you need to be open pushing in the early positions with 12-20BB, and you will see just how wide you can push from the button with short stacks. I recommend doing furhter Structural Hand Analysis on them as well, by taking a hand, assigning an average calling range behind you, calculating your net chance to steal the blinds (like if 9% of hands call you and theres 3 opp left to act, then we go (100 - hand range) = .91 ^ 3 = 75% chance to steal, 25% of the time were called with a top 9% hand and look at our equity vs that range using stove. I did it for nearly every hand just on the line above and below the line, and found a few spots where this method wasnt perfect.

Some of the problems...

This assumes we only get called in one place. Thats not a big deal since multiways are really quite rare comparatively like if a top 10% hand calls us, then for us to get called twice is under 1% of the time. Secondly it doesnt matter much cause in three way pots if you use RANGES, then everyone is really quite close in equity

It also doesnt account for what happens when people call us too loosely, which certainly happens, and usually increases our ability to push, but we still dont push much wider, since really its adding equity to the hands in the top of our range more than the bottom

It also doesnt account for payout structures, as I mention in this post tho ICM is not perfect, we need to adjust on the fly. If we are on a bubble we want to be first in more often than not, if we are in the final few, we may want to play tighter than our charts to avoid confrontations, but if all 4 are playing tight, then we actually want to be looser than our charts... it gets complicated.

It also assumes nearly clairvoyent opponents. I think thats fine, this is the hands at a minimum I would push instead of fold given my stack size, if folded to me.

Finally the pairs are hard to calculate exactly, since its tough to say what "calls us perfectly" means.. does that include AKs? AKo? any overs to our pairs? certainly with say 15BB or more we get more equity in other ways with pairs, possibly limping, possibly set mining, possibly open pushing even if the charts say not to simply because the odds are best that we get called by overs and we have overlay with the blinds.

These numbers also rely very heavily on high card strength since they assume head to head vs random hand confrontations, and one adjustment I have made is increasing the relative strength of some of the high card suited cards.

I primarily use them simply as a good guideline. If a hand is +cEV to push in a vacuum using the charts from my table, given my stack size, I sure as heck wont be folding it. coincidently or not, the 20BB push chart coincides nicely with my deep stack opening hand chart as well :>, although I certainly also open more Suited Connectors

And of course, ANTES, which not only am *I* chronically forgetting in certain post threads, but *POSTERS* are chronically forgetting to note in their threads, and its not trivial :>.

HTH

4Card