50 NL, AA river decision

[yapee]

Villain is 28/14/2.5. Hero is running pretty tight due to some fishes sitting, but I don't remember exact stats.

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $57.45
BB: $23.00
UTG: $133.10
Hero (CO): $133.45
BTN: $17.05

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.00</font>, UTG calls $4.00

Turn: ($13.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($13.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $13.25</font>, Hero ?

Well I thought that he has a King here an awful lot, but maybe our hand is a bit underrepped? Should I bet turn to avoid such a situation?

[Chomp]

Hmmm. Nasty and pretty common spot.

The only way I can make sense of this hand is in terms of value - making the most when ahead, losing least when behind. It is also I think a WA/WB situation.

So I am not sure about the cbet. Against this villain - whose stats are reasonable - I think he will call preflop with a wide range, but will only call cbets with {pairs, trips and boats}.

If we are ahead, and we give villain standardish preflop range of {22+, A8s+, ATo+, JT+, 45s+, 78o+}, then our flop bet may well fold out all but the {22+, Kx}. That's a lot of hands we are not allowing to catch up a bit if we are ahead. And a chk also gives hope to all those med. pp's he might have that we can still get some value from on later streets.

And if villain is ahead, he is WA, so pot control is good for us (and IMO pot control =/ losing value, as we probably only have 2 streets of value in the hand anyway).

So I might check flop.

Then, I'd try to b/b on t/r. If we bet turn (that would be a ~$4 vbet), he will call with lots of hands. If he folds, meh, he would have folded flop. If he c/r us, he is either ahead or should move up.

And I would feel fine calling a river lead from villain as it would be a small bet so if he has a K/boat, we lose only a little. Alternatively, if he has 66, say, and is just blocking when he leads river, we know that he would not have called $4 on flop AND $9 on turn anyway, so we haven't lost value. Finally, if he chks, we vb and he'll call light out of curiosity a lot.

As played, I think we are toast often, but it is possible we might well be good 1 time out of 3.

Just IMO (+ 3 pints of lovely Stella).

[yapee]

Wow, thanks for the thorough analysis.

[DonkeyOnTilt]

I would check the flop (not always). What will call your bet there? If its an underpair a free card doesn't hurt you much. If its a K, you're screwed. As played you really have no idea if your're winning or not on the river. I would probably fold to the PSB.

/My n00b analysis.

[Micro Donk]

i would play it the same, now call river

i can see many pocket pairs calling the c-bet then mistakenly try to get you off the hand

[Daniel LeClaire]

I feel like you have to call here. He might have a king or better, but guys do this with all kinds of hands.

Betting turn is okay too. If you get raised you weren't going to win at showdown anyway. Also, checking flop and then betting turn is a good line like Chomp suggested. Many ways to play it.

[ybother]

grunch

bet pots on ub with bet pot btn are bluffs more often than one might think....

I probably play it the same as you and call