Live Defending BB hand

[benwood]

Buzz,I have to respectfully disagree about the method of determining odds 2 rounds ahead in Omaha.


I generally feel that in Omaha,on the flop,it's usually wrong to look at the next 2 rounds together.Too many things can happen.

In holdem,you can sometimes calculate both rounds together,when on a flush draw or whatever,but this is a more simplistic situation.

I would welcome any thoughts that you or anyone has on this subject. Thanks. Ben.

[odomination]

im with you on this one

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to respectfully disagree about the method of determining odds 2 rounds ahead in Omaha.

[/ QUOTE ]Ben - First of all, I don’t think Odomination has a flop fit.

I have seen some hands/flops/pots such that Hero does have favorable odds to continue with only back-door draws. They’re possible, but relatively rare. Usually in order to have what I’d consider a flop fit, there need to be some single cards that will make Hero’s hand a winner. (And after the flop, looking ahead, Hero will have two chances to get one of these single cards).

What single card will make Hero’s hand a winner here? A ten?

But the ten of clubs enables a club flush - and then Hero is more or less stuck in the hand, playing the 4th nut flush. It might win, but usually it won’t. Does Hero want the ten of clubs (or any club except maybe the king)? Not really?

How about the ten of spades? You’d maybe prefer the ten of hearts or the ten of diamonds for Hero? Me too, but with either of these, there’s still no single card on the river Hero can like very much. Every single possible river card in the deck either enables low or a better high!

What Hero has here are purely runner-runner (back-door) draws. In other words, Hero needs both of the next two cards, both the turn and the river, to be favorable.

As it turned out, Hero made one of his runner-runner (back-door) draws for a non-nut, but winning full house.

But was it correct, odds wise, to play for it (or the other back-door draws) after this flop, even though, on the surface, the pot odds look great? You and Odomination seem to think so. I don’t.

In my humble opinion, in cases where Hero needs both of the next two cards to be favorable (as here), Hero should consider both of the next two bets.

Since that’s the case here, and it’s already complicated enough, I don’t want to confuse it with other situations where in order to figure whether your odds are favorable or not you also might want to consider more than just the current betting round.

I wish it were more simple - but in my humble opinion it isn’t.

Buzz