I'd appreciate it if you'd take the time to anaylze this hand

[TxRedMan]

tl;dr cliffs notes: just read the OP plz.

Wynn 2-5

I've been playing sort of LAG lately, and I found myself as the biggest LAG at the table for the hand in question. I haven't gotten out of line, but i'm raising a wide range and playing well against transparent hands postflop. Some relevant information that would distinguish my image from a common misconception about LAG play being too fast, too loose, or sometimes stupid; villain saw me re-raise the button when another player opened, then saw me fold two queens face up after some table talk with my opponent where I declared he had two kings and we agreed to show eachother our hands, and he turned over KK. I was getting nearly 2.5-1 when I folded that hand. An orbit later I flopped TP2K and folded to a turn bet when the board paired middle pair in a headsup raised pot. It was the same villain from above and when I said I couldn't beat AJ, he showed AJ. So my opponent most likely assumes I can fold big hands, my reads are strong, and likely respects my game. The only big pot i've played at this point was one where I raised two limpers preflop with AQdd and four of us saw a flop of A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], I bet $100 into $120, she min-raised, and I shoved for her last $300 or so and won the 55-45 coin flip.

He seems to be playing between LAP and slight LAG. He's not loose preflop with his openers, but I noticed he opens his middle suited connectors and small-medium pairs for $20-$25, and his premium hands and big pairs for $40. He defends his straddle when he's getting better than 3-1 and for the most part plays a solid game that probably can book a nice win against this lineup of labor day tourists. He seems to prefer making small value bets and doesn't get out of line. My last observation was that he wouldn't try and bluff me and probably wanted to play small pots with me because he had about $2500 and I covered.

On to the hand...

I straddle UTG and it folds to him in the HJ, he opens for $40, folds back to me and I call with QQ.

Both times I had re-raised an open in this session I had a big pair, I felt like I knew his range well, and I also knew he expected me to defend my straddle with something like 57s given our stacks. So I call for deception.

Flop

A-Q-6 one [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check/call $60

Turn

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check/call $100

I dont think he c-bets the flop with JJ. He's more likely to check and bet the turn if i check to him again. He'd c-bet the flop with KK but he'd probably give up on the turn. So i'm confident his range is very heavily weighted towards AA and AK, but to what frequency I dont know.


River

6x


At this point I felt confident about him not bluffing me. I also felt like he had to know I had a hand when I called on the turn, and I felt reasonably sure that the river gets checked through too often b/c he probably couldn't quote it but was thinking the old 'what hand calls that i beat'. But I knew he'd be reluctant to fold his hand if he had AK, and knew he'd only raise me with AA, so I led out for $260 with the intention of folding to a shove ($2,000 more).


I know it was long, but I'm on the fence with this one. I feel like my river bet is fine, I estimated that the least he'd check behind on this river would be 1 out of 4. The other three times, judging by his previous bet sizes, I estimated he'd bet $200 on the river, and I felt like he'd fold to a check-raise almost always when he held AK and only shove with AA, but i felt like he'd call $260 pretty much always with AK feeling obligated but probably not liking it.


Is check raising this turn a far superior play? I'm starting to think it is, but I also think there's merit to the way I played this hand in the form of low variance and losing the minimum when behind and frequently getting paid off, but there's no way to win the maximum given the way I played it.



Detailed thoughts and analysis would be greatly appreciated.


edit: after reading my post, i'm thinking i like an alternate line better; check-raise the turn to $300 (maybe $350?), lead the river for the same ($300-$350) expecting it to be about as much as he would call.

-Tex

[Borned_Luckbox1]

tl;dr

[JaBlue]

Lets see, you've got middle set and 2500 behind and c/c flop and turn in a 2/5 game. WTF. GET MORE MONEY INTO THE POT. You missed tons and tons of value on this one, man. c/r flop is probably best, then pot turn, etc. Not much more to it than that.