donk or c/r flop ?

[fdwarrior]

UTG+1 is passive so he wont c-bet AK,AJ,AT,JJ,TT,99 vs 3 opp so donk/call flop & fold turn UI is better

[Buzz-cp]

ok yea a flop donk is in order...

edit LDO didn't see OP posted reads now

[Smurph64]

*grunch

I don't think you are a loser here 9 times out of ten so by the time you get to the river to fold makes little sense to me.

Based on the stat read of the player I want to donk this one for a couple of reasons but mainly my hand isn't strong enough for a check raise with no backdoor draws. J Kicker against 5% raiser is not good.

If he calls me then I am probably good for now but if he raises I am probably drawing to very few outs.

I think I bet/call the flop and check/fold the turn here. My other choice is to just call down this guy and hope others call as well.

Against others I check/raise but not against this guy.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 is passive so he wont c-bet AK,AJ,AT,JJ,TT,99 vs 3 opp so donk/call flop & fold turn UI is better

[/ QUOTE ]

Many people won't cbet AT+ hands OOP vs 3 others and it has nothing to do with them being passive. If you feel he is as passive as his stats read, then some of those hands might not even be in his range.... you can't have it both ways.

This guy has a PFR of 5% which is roughly 99+, AJs+, AKo, and KQs. If we give him ANY credit for being positionally aware we might be able to make it JJ+, AQs+, AKo. We are ahead of both of these ranges, but donking is still very bad.

Why is donking bad? Well it has us putting in a bet with the least amount of info possible.

Assuming he is as passive as you state :
If we bet and he raises, we are hosed, yet we still have correct odds to call even if everyone else folds getting 11:1 and having roughly 5 outs on avg.

If we bet and he just calls, we don't have any idea of where we stand? He could have AK or KQs or even AQ if stupidly passive. He could have QQ and is slow playing. See the problem here? if he calls we have no clue regarding the definition of his hand. His calling range when adding it all together is still ahead of us.

If we bet and he folds, great, we most likely have the best hand. The problem here is that him folding is far, far less than him either calling or raising.

NOW, on the other hand, if we check, we get the most possible info we can.

1. If he bets, we need to re-evaluate his range. So if he bets, his range is TT+ (he may not even bet TT and JJ, but let's not make him a total coward), KQ, AQ, and hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] along with T/J/K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. We are behind this range as well but still have odds to call.
- - If UTG+2 raises or SB c/r's we should be folding.

2. If he checks, our hand gains a ton of value and if it checks through, we can lead a safe (non A/K) turn or raise if SB bets possibly and expect to win the pot fairly often (way more than we need to for the money we put in).
- - if he checks and UTG+2 bets like in this example, we have a great spot to c/r and again have a large amount of equity in the hand.

Typically donking in situations like these against ANY type of player is poor, but donking in a situation like this where a passive player raised PF is pretty bad. Much worse than donking into a total maniac which may be a good play if you get the maniac to protect your hand for you.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 is passive so he wont c-bet AK,AJ,AT,JJ,TT,99 vs 3 opp so donk/call flop & fold turn UI is better

[/ QUOTE ]

Many people won't cbet AT+ hands OOP vs 3 others and it has nothing to do with them being passive. If you feel he is as passive as his stats read, then some of those hands might not even be in his range.... you can't have it both ways.

This guy has a PFR of 5% which is roughly 99+, AJs+, AKo, and KQs. If we give him ANY credit for being positionally aware we might be able to make it JJ+, AQs+, AKo. We are ahead of both of these ranges, but donking is still very bad.

Why is donking bad? Well it has us putting in a bet with the least amount of info possible.

Assuming he is as passive as you state :
If we bet and he raises, we are hosed, yet we still have correct odds to call even if everyone else folds getting 11:1 and having roughly 5 outs on avg.

If we bet and he just calls, we don't have any idea of where we stand? He could have AK or KQs or even AQ if stupidly passive. He could have QQ and is slow playing. See the problem here? if he calls we have no clue regarding the definition of his hand. His calling range when adding it all together is still ahead of us.

If we bet and he folds, great, we most likely have the best hand. The problem here is that him folding is far, far less than him either calling or raising.

NOW, on the other hand, if we check, we get the most possible info we can.

1. If he bets, we need to re-evaluate his range. So if he bets, his range is TT+ (he may not even bet TT and JJ, but let's not make him a total coward), KQ, AQ, and hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] along with T/J/K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. We are behind this range as well but still have odds to call.
- - If UTG+2 raises or SB c/r's we should be folding.

2. If he checks, our hand gains a ton of value and if it checks through, we can lead a safe (non A/K) turn or raise if SB bets possibly and expect to win the pot fairly often (way more than we need to for the money we put in).
- - if he checks and UTG+2 bets like in this example, we have a great spot to c/r and again have a large amount of equity in the hand.

Typically donking in situations like these against ANY type of player is poor, but donking in a situation like this where a passive player raised PF is pretty bad. Much worse than donking into a total maniac which may be a good play if you get the maniac to protect your hand for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also keep in mind that I do know that the stats/read shown was for UTG+2 and not the PFR, but I was addressing the above quoted post as if his assumption that the passive player was the PFR.

[jeanbaptiste36]

ty Bravos. Answered my question.

[Fantam]

Bravos doesnt checking the flop, allow a free card to your opponents to overtake you, if you have the best hand ?

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
Bravos doesnt checking the flop, allow a free card to your opponents to overtake you, if you have the best hand ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure it does.. but giving up a free card is far from the worst thing in this situation. If you constantly donk to prevent free cards in situations like this, you ae losing more money to better hands than you are making from forcing people pay for cards when on draws.

[milesdyson]

grunch-

bet or c/c flop imo. really a tough hand vs such a tight range.

[BigBadBabar]

i really don't hate cc cc cc in this kind of hand