Donkey Test

[JPajamas]

Only gave away #49 because it was landsliding in the wrong direction, and I wasn't getting any answers to the contrary. Two more to go!

[willyc]

[ QUOTE ]

QJ is a little interesting, but runner-runner straights don't add much value [...]


[/ QUOTE ]

When you factor in the backdoors straight possibilities (1.5 outs for QJ, 0.5 outs for AK), QJ is about 15% more likely than AK to improve to a hand that beats a pair of tens (7.5 outs vs 6.5), which I think is significant.

Edit: By 15% more likely I mean QJ has about a 32% chance to improve and AK has about a 28% chance, and 32/28 ~ 1.15.

The chances to win for each hand are smaller than the chances to improve because of redraws/reverse domination possibilities, but I still think QJ is better than AK.

[Fiepoto]

$50/$100 NL. Approx $50,000 stacks. 4 handed. You are a tight aggressive mid stakes pro taking a shot at the big game. You have your entire bankroll on the table. You're on the button with:
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You raise to $500 and the expert pro player (one of the best players in New York, is very tricky and aggressive) in the big blind calls. Flop is:
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks and you bet $2,000. He thinks and calls. Turn is:
9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He checks, you check behind. River is:
2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He leads for $15,000 into the $5,000 pot. You have $49,000 left. You think he rivered the flush. What should you do? (Pretend you don't know what he has if you've seen the movie)

[Fiepoto]

Last Question Everyone!

5/10 NL cash game. $1,000 stacks. 6 handed. You raise from UTG with:
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The big blind calls. He is a loose aggressive player but has been check folding to your flop bets during the last few rotations. Flop is:
2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Is this a good flop for you? What should you do?

[willyc]

Everything about this question seems to be telling you not to push all in. You're up against a strong and tricky player, and the fact that he plays the hand exactly like a straightforward player would play a flush draw should set of alarms immediately. And the fact that your whole bankroll is on the table is probably even more important. It's not about expected value anymore when you could lose all your money, because there is no long run if that happens.

With that said, you definitely can't lay it down either. Even if you're sure he has a full house, there a few full houses you beat, so just call and throw up when he turns over his cards.

[cheburashka]

The point is, "You think he rivered the flush." If that's what you think, then you push all in. If villain is John Malkovich talking in a very bad fake Russian accent, then of course you fold, but then again only a lunatic would take on John Malkovich HU.

[thoman8r]

I voted to push all-in because I try not to be results oriented [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[crashzzz]

If this were a smaller ring game, where my entire bankroll wasn't involved, I'd move all-in for sure. But we're dealing with a pro here so...

On the flop, he's getting 1.5:1 pot odds which should discourage him from chasing a flush draw normally. Yet he calls... So he must have connected with the flop somehow and/or has more outs, perhaps even an OESD if he's holding TsJs, giving him 14 outs instead. He's most likely holding are AA, 99, 88, TsJs, and maybe even JsQs or 89s.

The turn is good news, we can eliminate 99 as possible holding and we're beating his 88/89 and all flush draw now. Everybody checks, so we got no additional information.

The river now completes the flush draw and goes over the top by betting 3 times the pot. If he had the flush, would he really try to scare us off like that??

I don't think so, he's been slow playing his full house Ace high or 8 high.

Since we've been wanting some action with our full house we must call since we're beating 2 out off 3 possible full houses he could have.

[crashzzz]

I don't see how we should be happy about this flop, there are no spades on the table. We've got a runner-runner straight draw and a ace high card.

Since villain is loose, he may have paired the board. Either case, because he has check/folded to our bets, I guess we should do the same again...

[gedanken]

grunching this time:

We're only behind pocket aces. if we think his calling range is 50% flush and lesser boats, 50% aces, it's still a shove. Tactically, easy push.

My life savings on the table? I call and take the $20k to stakes I can afford. hollywood.