Daliman's NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux

[trixtrix]

there are some misconceptions here..

all things being equal: teasing +1/-7 team 6pts >> teasing +3/-9 teams 6 pts. this is b/c picking up only half of 7 (losing approx 14 cents) is far better than picking up half of 3 (losing approx 22 cents)

however observe the phrase "everything else being equal" carefully.. there are certainly outliers to this rule, for instance: teasing +3 -130 by 6 >> teasing +1/-7 -110 by 6. this is b/c while picking up only half of the 3 loses 22 cents on average, you're saving 20 cents on the vig..

finally, "ties no action" teasers are worth far more in situations where you're teasing to +7/-3 than in situations when you're teasing to -1/+9.. the reasoning can be solved by inspection

[AAmucked]

So Carolina +7 1/2 / Lions +7 1/2 -110 is a +EV Wong Teaser, correct?

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
So Carolina +7 1/2 / Lions +7 1/2 -110 is a +EV Wong Teaser, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[Nate_Dogg]

Thanks for the posts, I've learned a ton. Two questions...as I look at my sportsbook (WSEX which no one on here seems to use so maybe I should switch) I only see one Wong-able line. (BAL/CIN)

1. Is this normal for a given week?
2. Also, do any books offer the 2-team tease at even money (other than the 5-dimes tricky lines) or is that a completely dead?

[rsigley]

you can tease detroit/carolina on bodog

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the posts, I've learned a ton. Two questions...as I look at my sportsbook (WSEX which no one on here seems to use so maybe I should switch) I only see one Wong-able line. (BAL/CIN)

1. Is this normal for a given week?
2. Also, do any books offer the 2-team tease at even money (other than the 5-dimes tricky lines) or is that a completely dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wsex is a good book, keep it.
Yes, Wongs completely vary by week. Can be none/1 or 6.

[omahahahaha]

Anyone know of a site where I could punch in parameters such as years and spreads in the NFL and it would spit out the results accordingly?

[fifield]

[ QUOTE ]
Too tired to run the numbers on the value or loss of value from teasing a # from +3 to +9 as opposed to +2.5 to +8.5. Anyone have that info laying around?

Roughly 37% of reg season games are won by 3-7 points and another 4.5% by 8 or 9.

3 pts 16.1%
4 4.7%
5 2.9%
6 5.7%
7 9.8%
8 3.2%
9 1.2%

Those are close rounded estimates for margin of victory.
So I am trying to figure out if teasing all those bad 2.5 lines on 5Dimes at +100 2 team odds is worthwild or not. We don't lose much landing on 8.5 instead of 9.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that 3-pt fig including 1- and 2-pt wins as well? If not, you got the figs please for 1- and 2-pt wins? Thanks,

fifield

[brendanb438]

1pt 3.9%
2pts 3.6%

[Lacan212]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Also, do any books offer the 2-team tease at even money (other than the 5-dimes tricky lines) or is that a completely dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a complete Noob on Sports Betting, but don't the books in Vegas offer even money on two team teasers? Is there a previous thread about what odds needed for +EV on teasers of three or more, or are they pretty much standard?