QQ, K flops, WA/WB?

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's an idea: start with a standard pf 3-bet hand-range for Villan, and do the Bayes' analysis once you reach the turn. Show your work.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect that OP may not know what you have in mind, so I will do this and allow myself to be corrected if wrong.

Lets assume that your opponent 3-bet pf with the following range: AA-TT and AK. The number of possible combinations for these hands on the turn are as follows:

AA - 6 comb. KK - 1 comb. QQ - 1 comb. JJ - 6 comb. TT - 6 comb. AK - 8 comb. Total number of comb. = 28.

You beat JJ & TT = 12 comb. You lose to AA,KK & AK = 15 comb. You tie with QQ = 1 comb.

So your chance of having the best hand on the turn is 12/28 or ~ 42.8%.

The size of the pot on the turn is 5.7BB, so your pot equity on the turn is: 5.7 * 0.428 = 2.44 BB.

Now, lets assume the chance that your hand will be good by the river will be the same as above at 42.8%.

Then your EV for calling down would be as follows, assuming that your opponent bet both the turn and river.

EV = {(5.7 + 2) * 0.428} - (2 * 0.578) = 2.14 BB.

Basically, you gain 7.7 BB 42.8% of the time when your hand is good, and you lose 2 BB by calling down 57.8% the rest of the time.

Compare this to the EV of check/folding which is 0, and then you definitely dont want to check/fold your hand on the turn.

[Shillx]

I kinda like the turn check but there is no way I'm folding.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I suspect that OP was a hit-n-run...

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp, but no matter.

At .25/.50 I might be inclined to include AQs/AJs/ATs in his pf3 range, all of which would call with an OC and a BDSD, and 6 combos of which might raise the turn with a four-flush. That puts you a bit over 50/50 ahead.

Other than that, looks right.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you capped preflop, you have no choice but to c-bet the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I had a go at the maths in my post above.

Now, I am wondering about this. Just because you capped pf, is it really compulsory to c-bet this flop HU ?

Assigning your opponent a hand range of AA-TT & AK, you are behind more often than you are ahead. Also do you really want to risk folding the hands that you are beating such as JJ and TT ?

The risk of a flush draw seems minimal to me as, your opponent would be unlikely to have 4 to a flush on the flop.

So, would check/call flop, turn and bet/fold river really be such a bad line ? (which I think is what the OP was trying to ask).

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
At .25/.50 I might be inclined to include AQs/AJs/ATs in his pf3 range, all of which would call with an OC and a BDSD, and 6 combos of which might raise the turn with a four-flush. That puts you a bit over 50/50 ahead.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that this also answers my question in my other post, as to why you would c-bet the flop.

Thanks.

[unzip]

Thanks for these calculations Fantam.

We are behind 21x on this flop against typical 3-betting range and ahead 12x if I count correctly (~90%/10% or more ahead/behind each time). So WA/WB cant be too good here?

Compare that with having KK and then A flopping - we are behind 15x and ahead 18x in this situation and I'm happy to use WA/WB line.

FWIW I consider unknowns 3-betting range to be TT+, AK, sometimes AQs even in 0.25/0.50 - this may be a mistake but I doubt it.

[fdwarrior]

i think the best line here is to b/c turn and c/c no diamond river (except for Qd), unknown is semi bluffing & bluffing a lot in this spot

[Smurph64]

*grunch

when the board pairs people believe that their middle or bottom pair becomes good quite often and bet it. I don't think a fold here is the right call and I call down.