25NL Flush on paired board

[Boredom]

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

I talked to a friend who plays midstakes about this one, he said against anybody average or below he would call. I really didn't have a read here, had only been at the table a few hands, but this player seemed to be playing tight preflop. I really can't see anybody with a brain raising with worse for value on the river, and he INSTAraised. Also seems pretty unlikely he could even have a hand with which to bluff. Should I bet a bit more on the river, whether I am bet-folding or bet-calling?

Hero (SB): $40.38
BB: $26.55
UTG: $27.92
MP: $20.81
CO: $36.72
BTN: $4.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt J T (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, CO calls $0.25, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1) 9 K A (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.00</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $1.00

Turn: ($3) 2 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, CO calls $3.00

River: ($9) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.50</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $25.50</font>, Hero...

[youngKR]

I call here. I think the bet size is fine.

If he hit a boat, I would doubt he would Instaraise, he would probably take his time figuring out a good bet size. He could have Ax or Kx, don't give these guys too much credit for hands at NL25. I would most likely put villain on Ax and hit trip aces on the river.

Either way, call here, I can't really see any hand he could have made without raising PF, unless he was playing something like A9 or A2.

[Spurious]

I would call.
Your line is fine, too.
I doubt he got AK, maybe A9.
Axs maybe, but wouldnt he raise at one point before the river?
QTs+ might be in his range as well.
If he played the set, thinking:
"Ok, i hit my set, lets slowplay it.
Damn that turn made a flush, lets proceed with caution.
Nice, i made a FH, i'm gonna raise a lot because he doesnt give me credit for my hand" then he could have you beat - i doubt it tho.

It's definitely a weird spot, but your hand is good enough to call.

[orig!naL]

Many times quick raises are good. I've seen so many donks hit a set or 2-pair and think they just caught the nuts.

first of all, if this guy is tight pre-flop, I would strongly consider 3-betting this OOP.

Second of all, I wouldn't bet when the board pairs like that and it's likely the top pair he has been calling down with, always check that river with the intention of calling. Had you check, there is a good chance villain bets $8 or $9 which would be perfectly reasonable to call here. As played, this is really tough, but I would probably call.

my advice: next time 3-bet from SB, C/C river.

[Perk76]

[ QUOTE ]

Second of all, I wouldn't bet when the board pairs like that and it's likely the top pair he has been calling down with, always check that river with the intention of calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is calling with top pair all the way, then this is a perfect card to bet for value with. I am not check calling in this spot often, and its mostly villan dependent. I think against alot of standard players checking in this spot is losing money, since there are alot of hands that are gonna call bets from, that will not reopen betting on the river.

[Boredom]

original:

It was limped pf, I completed in the SB.

And I really don't think check-calling the river is that great here, villains at 25NL in my experience aren't that aggressive and he might check behind Ax or even a worse flush here but will definitely call a bet with them.

[Iwineverypot]

[ QUOTE ]
Many times quick raises are good. I've seen so many donks hit a set or 2-pair and think they just caught the nuts.

first of all, if this guy is tight pre-flop, I would strongly consider 3-betting this OOP.

Second of all, I would bet when the board pairs like that and it's likely the top pair he has been calling down with, always check that river with the intention of calling. Had you check, there is a good chance villain bets $8 or $9 which would be perfectly reasonable to call here. As played, this is really tough, but I would probably call.

my advice: next time 3-bet from SB, C/C river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This advice is terrible. First off, there was no raise pf, so how are we going to 3 bet this? Even if this was a raised pot this is a horrible spot for a 3 bet given the read that villain is very tight preflop. Secondly, c/c'ing river here is so results oriented it's not even funny. This is an extremely obviously MANDATORY river value bet.

Anyway, as for what I think you should do here, I have no idea. We need a more precise read IMO than just "he's tight preflop". That does lead me to believe, however, that he could easily have a boat as tight players preflop probably are limping mostly small-medium pairs. However, that only really worries us about 99 or 22, the rest of his range includes flushes via limped SC's(although I dont see how someone could play a flush like this), most of which you are ahead of or the random A-xs which could have hit a random boat, or he just hit trips and went nuts. This is a pretty tough decision because I don't usually see overbets like this on the river without the nuts or near nuts from tight/solid players that have half a clue. I would probably call because there just seems to be alot more in his range you beat than what beats you, but to be honest I really think he shows you a boat here, I've developed my own theory about massive overbets and it has helped me quite a bit.

[Boredom]

[ QUOTE ]

If he played the set, thinking:
"Ok, i hit my set, lets slowplay it.
Damn that turn made a flush, lets proceed with caution.
Nice, i made a FH, i'm gonna raise


[/ QUOTE ]

This is definitely a possibility, 99 was the hand I most put him on too, as a lot of players at 25NL don't raise 99 (or TT) after a limper. And the smoothcall with the set is superstandard at these stakes. Also in my experience players at 25 will smoothcall with Axclubs on this flop thinking they have the board crushed and not wanting to "scare me out". Then when they make the nuts, again they get scared about me folding. It's backwards and they miss value like crazy but that's how they play.

I ended up folding in this hand but I def see the argument for calling. I think it really requires a better read of my opponent which I unfortunately did not have.