16: 99 short facing a raise

[loxxii]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t1460)
UTG (t835)
MP1 (t4145)
Hero (t935)
CO (t2280)
Button (t2370)
SB (t1475)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t400</font>

I put him on AJ+, 88+

[alex-star]

i fold. you might get a better spot.

[sippin_criss]

It doesn't matter much I don't think. Are your ranges based on reads?

[loxxii]

yes, what range would make this a def. fold / def. push?

[JacJacAtk]

Assuming he never folds to a push and that range is correct, a fold is correct. Is that an odd raise size for him, though? If he won't do that with AA/KK but might with a couple of hands weaker than the range you gave him, this moves to flip or slight favorite for you, which you need to tkae here.

This might also be a spot where it's worth risking a slight -$EV gamble based on the possibility that your hourly rate improves by making a stand here rather than potentially wasting another X hands on this particular game where you're in a hole. That's a lot of math to do and assumptions to make though, so I'm not going to try to figure that out.

[JacJacAtk]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, what range would make this a def. fold / def. push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Throw out AA/KK and add KQ and it's break-even. Make it 66+ and and add KQ, same thing. Extend the latter case down to A9, and you're a 51-49 favorite with a slight overlay, so probably a good $EV push. Anything wider's going to be a definite push. I think the average villain at the $16s opens to 400 with enough Ax (and not with AA/KK often enough) to make this a good spot to get in.