25/50 300bb deep i have middle set wtf?

[UpstateMatt]

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To those who think Villain got KK/AA etc...How is a somewhat reasonable Player calling with AQ/KK/AA on that flop, after 2 raises behind?
Just wondering, cuz i don't play these stakes.

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I think AQ can probably be eliminated from villain's range, but AA/KK can't be, IMO. If villain is always folding AA/KK here, then he can only have QQ [or, in theory, 56]. But why call with QQ if 1)he knows we have a set and 2)it turns his hand face up?

I actually think his call here looks a lot like a frustrated AA.

[9cao]

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Interesting hand.

I think the turn is a check, I can't see you getting two streets of value here if you are ahead.

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Agreed. I also think AA/KK will fold here if you bet, but perhaps call the river if you check. And I think AA/KK are the most likely hands you are beating here.

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Given the action I would say it is way more likely to be up against 33, 43, Q4, Q3 then AA/KK (in terms of hands we beat) as long as Hero's/Button's image aren't of crazy/spewy type.

CO opened here so his range is HUGE pf. QQ and 33 are equally likely IMO. I would just go into check/call mode here and if he checks behind, bet river, puke/call raise.

If you give Villain's SN you can get some way better advice BTW.

[T-Starks]

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Who is playing the button? Quite important to know if villain respects buttons game.

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BTN is TAG with a flop aggression of 4.89, don't know how villain views his game.

[T-Starks]

I agree about checking makes sense on turn, what's our plan about if he:
checks behind?
bets like half pot?

I think his HD gets veery narrow with that flop coldcall and I can't see him having AA/KK ever like someone said.

[TallyHo]

What are peoples thoughts on making a very frustrating bet for him to deal with if he has AA/KK (although I dont think he does), like $1500 just to extract some more value, as if we are ahead I dont know how we will extract alot more value with our set if he checks behind our turn check, - can he fold to that type ($1500) of bet?

I think he could easily have bottom set.

Thoughts?

[ImpulseKid]

Villain has AA imo, id make a small weak lookin bet of around 2500 to entice a call, then if called around a 4k bet on river. If you are reraised on the turn then it would be very worrying as i cant see him reraising with anything other than QQ.

[RickOSU]

based on description of villian, I feel like he's getting away from KK and AA after you jack it up to 3k. Your line looks 100% like a set. He has the odds to call your raise with 56 if he knows you're going to stack off here or slow down on the turn and give him a free river. I'd be willing to bet you're up against QQ or 56s here enough to get away from this. You're only ahead of 33 at this point. Check. I don't think I go anywhere further with this hand. A 19/10 winner just isn't going to play AA or KK like this.

C/F (to a normal-sized bet), if he checks behind (which he would probably do with 33, then I would VB a blank river.

edit: please don't check-rr the flop, it is just entirely too strong of a line. Any good player will put you on exactly what you have here. It makes the hand 100% more difficult to play.

[HERE_2_gamble_]

Im curious of the action,
I dont think you see 5-6 very often at all.
He isnt getting that great odds to call, considering hero prob bets this turn a high % of the time in his mind with a set, so he only has 1 card to hit and is like what 15%?


If he checks behind, easy v - bet.

If he bets i think the best play would probably be a fold, but i dont think id be able to during game play.

[UpstateMatt]

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based on description of villian, I feel like he's getting away from KK and AA after you jack it up to 3k. Your line looks 100% like a set. He has the odds to call your raise with 56 if he knows you're going to stack off here or slow down on the turn and give him a free river. I'd be willing to bet you're up against QQ or 56s here enough to get away from this. You're only ahead of 33 at this point. Check. I don't think I go anywhere further with this hand. A 19/10 winner just isn't going to play AA or KK like this.


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Given this (which makes sense), isn't 33 the same as AA for villain? Is 2 pair (43 with the case 3?) really in our range? I feel like giving villain credit for folding AA but not 33 is not consistent here, although i do recognize psychological differences b/t the two hands.

[adanthar]

stop pretending he has AA here, he doesn't. it's nearly always QQ or 33 (and yes psychologically villain is way more likely to fold aces than threes even though he shouldn't).

turn is an autocheck obv. thinking about it, I'm not sure what he's more likely to bet vs. check behind - QQ would have to bet to get stacks in but might not feel comfy with that card, where 33 can safely bet a final 4K/fold to more action. I'd have to look at his bet size to continue.