This SPR stuff, I don't know

[Man of Means]

1/2 nl at foxwoods
Two folds I made in the face of favorable SPR for overpair and big top pair

Hand 1:
Hero UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] raises to $12. 3 coldcallers and the BB calls.
Hero has $300, MP has $300, button has $250

Flop 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot $61)
Hero bets $40, MP calls, Button minraises to $80
Hero folds

Hand 2:
Villain in this hand just beat me on the previous hand with nut flush over 2nd nut flush. He did not raise his NFD+gutshot draw on the flop of QcJcXx but he did minraise the river when I made a weak 1/4 pot bet.

Hero has KQo in middle position. Stack is $250
1 limper, Hero raises to $12, 6 callers (3 ahead, 2 blinds, limper)
Flop K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot $84)
Check, check, check, Hero bets $50, villain minraises to $100, all fold
Hero folds.

I mean, I hate hate hate putting in this much money before folding but check/folding and commmitting both seem wrong. There's always the option of making a small flop bet, but that does not protect my hand or get proper value from draws. And it also welcomes a semi-bluff/bluff raise. So I feel like the favorable SPR failed to save me from a tough decision.

[marchron]

I could go either way on Hand 2, but you've got to commit in Hand 1. That's a semibluff a decent percentage of the time because the board is so drawy.

[gregorio]

I started to comment and realized I have no sense of how people play live or full ring (I can't imagine a raised pot with 5+ people seeing flop). With 5-7 people calling a 6BB raise, those c-bets have to be huge, and can you discount any hand when 7 people see a flop?

Hand 1: My first thought when I glanced at the hand was that with that board, it looked like a real bad semi-bluff, and I would call and push safe turn, but in retrospect, with so many people cold calling, are 22, 77 and 88 a big part of their range? I have no idea what anyone would ever CC 6BB raise with, but is everyone setmining at this game, or are they CCing with SCs, or both? Taking into conisderation the # of people on the flop, the types of hand people are CCing with, and the min-raise, does this look like a set trying to get you pot-committed?

Second hand: KQo is not a good hand multiway. If you can raise to isolate limper, then PF raise is okay from LP, but from MP, I fold it, especially if there are likely going to be 4+ people post flop. Unless you make a straight with it, you are never going to be comfortable with that hand multiway post flop, and just end up in situations like you have here, where you have a decent hand, but no way of knowing if it is the second best hand. From your description of villain, it sounds like he doesn't raise draws. Are people CCing with AK at this table or 3-betting it? I think this is a much easier fold than first hand (though fold PF is better still).

[Mandor_TFL]

Hand 1 call and commit safe turn ( push flop is ok too ).


Hand 2 your beat too often fold it.

[sweetjazz]

With the read, hand 2 fold looks okay. It's tempting to call flop and reevaluate, because this is often a weak K "finding out where he's at". This seems like the type of player who would slowplay a set (although maybe he's afraid of the flush draw). I think I fold without the Qc, but I peel with the Qc and push a third club (if my read is that he will fold AK, which many live players will). But folding right away could be best.

In hand 1, I'm felting this always and I'm just pushing the flop. Out of position, just calling seems bad here. You simply have to go broke if he has a set or 87. Even though the effective stacks seem a bit "deep" (125 BB), the large preflop raises in this game make the effective stacks play much shallower. Button has JJ-99 or a draw too often to do anything but push.

[Man of Means]

Hand 1, I agonized in the tank for about 2 minutes. Physical tells and the size of the raise convinced me that he could not have a smaller pair, like JJ-99. The semi-bluff seemed just as unlikely because the minraise beckoned a call by at least one of us. (Of course a squeeze play would be suspected but the guy in the middle was such a donkey, button had to know he would not win the pot with a minraise)

So I let it go. Turn was a 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], MP went all-in for $125 more, button called and at showdown, button had 22 for a full house, while the other guy said "two pair" and mucked.

I know it's only one or two cases, but despite a favorable SPR, I still need a monster hand to commit. It seems that in this particular game a semi-bluff in a multiway pot is actually quite rare - and the existence of semibluffs is part of the reason we don't mind committing.

(Headsup is different and I think felting an overpair is usually an easy decision.)

Anyway, the thing I was thinking was that in multiway pots with a single digit SPR, where each player puts in something like 3-5% of his stack preflop, the guy with the overpair/tptk is still getting screwed quite often by implied odds if he decides "it's safe to commit." When big money goes in on the flop, people seem to have a big hand.

[Mandor_TFL]

I misread the action on hand 1 and did not see the flop call and then min-raise. 3 way your safe in folding though your not always beat.