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  #11  
Old 09-04-2007, 12:16 AM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,068
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

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Lol modest much?

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Actually, I was wrong. This player was highly respected by knowledgeable and successful players. Big difference, of course. Sorry about that.

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ohhh, burnt... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #12  
Old 09-04-2007, 12:55 AM
FF_Woodycooks FF_Woodycooks is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: 100NL FR
Posts: 385
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

I tell people not to seriously get into SNG's unless you're planning on and committed to playing at least 10k of them.
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  #13  
Old 09-04-2007, 02:42 AM
pergesu pergesu is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: i ain\'t got my taco
Posts: 5,201
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

I run hot like biscuits and gravy
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  #14  
Old 09-04-2007, 03:25 AM
QuattroFour4 QuattroFour4 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Evanston, Illinois
Posts: 195
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

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Longer and more brutal than you can possibly imagine, so intense and demoralizing that you will begin to question everything that is known about probability.

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Ack, if only it weren't true... Boooze cures the pain, for a bit...

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been there, done that
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  #15  
Old 09-04-2007, 03:29 AM
ceavou22 ceavou22 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 137
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post7042440
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  #16  
Old 09-04-2007, 03:39 AM
RPatterson67 RPatterson67 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Mexico
Posts: 230
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

I am good at winning all-ins!
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  #17  
Old 09-04-2007, 03:45 AM
xPeru xPeru is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Peru
Posts: 747
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

I modelled this in Excel using a monte carlo simulation and found that over 10,000 samples of 10,000 games, you can expect a run of 25-30 STTs without making the money at least once. Put a couple of these runs close together and add in some tilt and you can see why you need 50 buy-ins to feel comfortable.
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  #18  
Old 09-04-2007, 09:50 AM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,068
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

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check out rvg's roi simulator, it should give you what you are looking for


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Bad beat: I figured out how to use RVG's simulator but I'm having trouble understanding what it's telling me... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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  #19  
Old 09-04-2007, 10:20 AM
Niggel Niggel is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Posts: 360
Default Re: Downswings and running hot!

[ QUOTE ]
I modelled this in Excel using a monte carlo simulation and found that over 10,000 samples of 10,000 games, you can expect a run of 25-30 STTs without making the money at least once. Put a couple of these runs close together and add in some tilt and you can see why you need 50 buy-ins to feel comfortable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I need 100 Buy-Ins to be comfortable if I am not looking to aggressively and quickly move up.
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