Overpair on dry enough board facing a c/r

[Knuckles]

Actually if you go look at the numbers ran by Lego05 this is an easy call. If you haven't played with Poker Stove it is a great program to figure out where you stand in hands like these.

[benlj21]

Snapcall and it's not close. Even if villain would only play AA, KK, and QQ like this, you have a very nice equity edge here (fewer combos of QQ than KK due to Q on the flop, of course). If villain DOES have a set here, it's ok this time because your PFR was big enough that it denied him the implied odds to setmine, so if he calls everytime there preflop with 66, you'll nail him in the long run just by having the best hand. (It would be great if someone would clear that last sentence up, it's probably incomprehensible but hopefully right in theory.) Anyway, this is a very profitable spot if you use pokerstove to analyze his range, even with just AA-QQ, as others have done. If he can go nuts occasionally or have some awful draw like KhJh then it's even better. Call.

[cooker3]

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Call.



Just about worst case scenario IMO (maybe take out a couple KK combos for the real worst case scenario):

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

9,900 games 0.005 secs 1,980,000 games/sec

Board: Qh 2h 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.106% 59.33% 04.77% 5874 472.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 35.894% 31.12% 04.77% 3081 472.50 { AcAd, KK, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs }



Half the KK combos:

Board: Qh 2h 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.085% 45.27% 06.82% 3137 472.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.915% 41.10% 06.82% 2848 472.50 { AcAd, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs }


---

4,950 games 0.005 secs 990,000 games/sec

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I didn't realise the worse case scenario would give me 36% equity. I really need to start stoving more so I know the numbers better.

[/ QUOTE ]


You have AA. You're the one with 64% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I need to learn to read

[sqwisssssss]

what r u waiting for man???!!! villan just made yur job easy. everything everyone said in here was spot on. espeacially about if villan has a lower set. he cant beat u in the long run set mining for that price versus yur stack.

call

[toddxlogan]

This is super close. And the truth is that it doesn't really matter very much at all, because it is so close.

FWIW, I think this is a call. Unless you have been super active (not likely, you are really tight IIRC, and especially so in the blinds), then Qwerty is not calling that 3-bet with 2's or 6's. Mind you, I think he 4-bets a lot of the time with AA, KK, QQ PF, but I notice decent players doing the flat-call of a 3-bet with monsters as of late, and maybe Qwerty has picked up on the trend. I think basically we have 3 combos of QQ, 6 combos of KK, and 1 combo of AA. Super small chance of a set. He is just slightly more likely to make this play with QQ than KK, which makes me think that your equity here is right around 50/50ish.

If you dont' mind a gambool, a call is fine. But a fold ain't that bad either.

The good part: Your decision doesn't matter that much here.

[netstorm]

you have to call $33,5 to win $66.5

so youre basically getting great odds in relation to your equity. Even if you are behind his range (which I doubt), you are getting the right price.

easy call and it isnt close IMO.