Donkey Test

[ev_slave]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone took Labour Day (Labor Day for my American friends) off, hopefully back on track Tuesday...THREE QUESTIONS LEFT!!! COME ON...GIT ER DUN!!! EH!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. In that post alone you've indicated that you're 1) British, 2) A redneck, and 3) Canadian.

Just where ARE you from?

[JPajamas]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone took Labour Day (Labor Day for my American friends) off, hopefully back on track Tuesday...THREE QUESTIONS LEFT!!! COME ON...GIT ER DUN!!! EH!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. In that post alone you've indicated that you're 1) British, 2) A redneck, and 3) Canadian.

Just where ARE you from?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, we Canadians use "labour" as well as the British, secondly, I can speak redneck to communicate better with my 'merican cohorts. Versatile...mixing up my game... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[davebwell]

Another reason to fold is that a call or a raise by you doesn't close the action if you call or raise and MP re-raises it you are in worse shape than you thought and invested a lot of $$ in a pot you'll be folding pre-flop.

[shortbuyRN]

only a couple of question left...won't somebody please post them?? (sorry I don't know how!)
I want to see the answers pajamas said he would post!

[Fiepoto]

5/10 NL. $1,000 stacks. You raise to $40 from late position. A loose aggressive player in the big blind (who has been re-raising from the blinds a lot) re-raises to $130 and you call.

Your image is loose aggressive. You and the BB have been in a few big re-raised pots so far, both of you have been bluffing and semi bluffing relentlessly. Flop is:
2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He makes a $200 continuation bet. Which hand is best if you plan to raise all-in on this flop?

[Fiepoto]

I admit, this question really confused me. when would you ever choose anything other than 88? The only reason to choose AK is if you put him on a 10, but then why go all in?

Now, if the question were, which hand would you like to have if the player calls your all in, well then obviously I prefer the AK, because my 88 is probably beat.

[willyc]

Why is your question any different? If he folds then you win the pot, so don't you only care about which hand is best if he calls?

Edit: Well I should admit the question really confused me too and I had the same thinking - 88 is the only made hand, but with the least chance to improve and beat something he's calling with. QJ seems to have the most outs (barely) with the backdoor straight draw and you might not be reverse dominated as you would with AK against someone calling with AT, or who knows? Maybe you want him to call with AQ? I'm totally lost as to why you'd ever go all in with any of those hands and only $40 invested in the pot.

[Fiepoto]

25/50 NL. $5,000 stacks. You have a tight image. An unkown player UTG raises to $200. A skilled loose aggressive player in middle position calls, and you call in the cutoff seat with:
6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Flop is:
J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


UTG bets $400 and middle position calls. You raise to $1400, UTG player folds and middle position re-raises to $3400.

[ev_slave]

I admit the overcall, AI combo is scary, but I think we can discount JJ since that's almost certainly in a skilled LAGS reraising range in MP (to isolate PFR and lessen the chance of Kx and Ax getting odds to call in later position.

I don't know what the rest of the range that would make this play, possibly a bluff (but rarely) or 22? Maybe he's trying to be tricky with KK/AA, but I think we're ahead of whichever range this is, because 22 matches the smooth call PF, smooth call w/ hidden set until more money gets in there.

[crashzzz]

Alright, I'm a noob, so I'd like to see if I'm doing this correctly...

First thing to do is to figure out the possible hands of both MP and LP.

MP's hand range: 88+, ATs+, AQo+, KJs+ and perhaps some even lower suite connectors?

LP's hand range according to Harrington PF play after a raise could be: TT+, AKs, AKo,
he may also be raising for isolation more than value, being on the button.

MP raised 4BB, and LP re-raised almost 3times pot size. The is 195$ and it's 130$ for us to call, a 1.5:1 pot odds.

Now, we've got mainly 3 possibilities I guess, fold, call or raise...

A call would most likely get MP involved as well, (he will be getting 3.25:1 pot odds to call). Question is, of his initials hands he played, how many will he fold in front of a re-raise & call?

I've put him on 13 possible groups of hands (for a total of 105 hand combinations) . With a 3.25:1 pot odds, he could call with his pocket pairs and his AQs+ (does this sounds reasonable?). Hence, he would call with 54 of his hands (51% call) and raise with his 3 possible As combination (3% re-raise).

As for the LP, he has a total of 32 possible hands; 19% of time would have AA or KK, 56% lower pocket pairs, 28% AK or AQs.

3% of the time MP re-raise, and we know we're beat and we've wasted 130$
51% of the time MP calls and we're in a 3-way pot.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.297% 17.53% 06.76% 320864335 123765579.50 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 40.148% 35.09% 05.06% 642091366 92607103.50 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 35.554% 32.24% 03.31% 589975444 60652762.00 { 88+, AQs+, AKo }

so we'll be getting 24% pot equity for a call on a pot of 425$ 51% of the time(so 102$ of that pot would belong to us).

if MP folded, we would be getting a 40% pot equity on a 325$ pot 49% of the time (so a 130$)

Since in the best case scenario we're just breaking even with a call, a call can't be right.

Let's see about a re-raise of about 400$.

MP faced with some 1.6:1 pot odds and is caught in a sandwich effect, would fold all but his As, to which he would go all-in. so 3% of time he would go all-in, and fold the rest.

LP would have 2.3:1 pot odds and would probably think he's beaten unless he's holding As or Ks maybe. so 10% of the time he'll go all-in and 10% he would just call with KK, the rest he would fold I guess?

If he called with Ks, we would be getting 30% pot equity on a 855$ pot (256$ equity) or only 18% if he called with either As or Ks (154$ equity)

Our EV would be:
10%+3% either MP or LP re-raises and we fold
EV = (-390 * .15) = -50.7$
could it be more often than that? let's say either could bluff, so 20% either MP or LP re-raises and we fold
EV = (-390) * .20 = -78$

20% MP folds, and LP calls with Ks or As
EV = (154$ - 390$)*.2 = -47$
60% MP & LP fold
EV = 195% * 0.8 = 117$

Total EV = 117$ - 47$ -50.7$ = 19.3$

So a raise would be the best call (unless I'm not doing this right)

Thoughts?